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Application Of A Consultant For Excellent Consulting Group

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Purpose: Introduction/background of problem

As a consultant for Excellent Consulting Group, we were tasked with developing and

testing different forecasting techniques. In case study number three we utilized linear regression

as a form of forecasting. The information used to test this assessment was gathered by our client

who collected data on sales of one of its products, a lottery app for smart phones and hits on its

website. This information was gathered over a 12-month period and includes the hits and sales

for the corresponding months. The consulting manager at Excellent Consulting Group has

requested we go the next step and analyze additional forecasting methods. As consultants we

feel it is important to do a …show more content…

The same data will be utilized in this case study but simple exponential smoothing will be utilized to help analyze the data. The information we decided to focus on for the purpose of this case was the sales data from our client`s lottery app. We will use this information to calculate the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the first twelve months assuming the calculation for January represents its actual sales. Two different alphas 0.15 and 0.90 are utilized in order help determine our assessment.
In the below spread sheet the formatted data are to the left and the data are arranged by months

and sales. Immediately to the right of this information is the excel chart utilizing alpha 0.15 to

forecast and analysis the data. To the right of that is similar information but the alpha utilized in

this scenario is 0.90. The analysis with the lowest MAPE will help us determine which

forecasting equation achieves the best outcome for our analysis. Looking at the diagram it

appears that utilizing 0.15 is a better forecasting method than utilizing 0.9. As you can tell, mean error (ME) were almost four times higher using the alpha 0.9. The

average sales minus forecast sales using alpha 0.15 totaled -33.404. The mean percentage error

(MPE) average utilizing alpha 0.15 was -0.105 and -0.061 utilizing alpha 0.9. The MAPE

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