Executive Summary
The focus of Ted Ralley, the Director of marketing research for an auto spare parts company is to calculate future sales for the upcoming business year. His task is to provide the highest levels of forecasting accuracy. To accomplish this, he utilized historic sales data from four years prior, and the most available forecasting method, time series to conduct several forecasts. He was however still apprehensive about results he garnered using the time series method. He is of the view that economic activity and oil prices plays a significant role in auto parts sales, and to substantiate his views he has decided to forecast using econometric variables. It is his intention to base his forecasting decisions and projections for the upcoming year on results derived from analysis surrounding this theory. An initial analysis was conducted on historic sales data using excel to calculate descriptive statistics. From there several other forecasting models were introduced: Regression with seasons, Regression with factors, Holt Winters Additive and Multiplicative were also used in predicting quarterly sales for 2008. Based on the outcomes it was suggested that for 2008 Ted Ralley would make quarterly predictions utilizing the forecast values obtained from the Regression with Econometric Variables. The analysis conducted proved his theory, that oil prices and economic activities influences auto parts sales.
Background
The demand for auto parts has increased as a result
The JW Anderson product range consists of menswear, womenswear and unisex garments and accessories. They currently produce six collections annually - two menswear and four womenswear.
* Forecasting is an impartial strategic ingredient that will ensure apt base for reputable planning. Our forecast is always the first step in developing plans in running the business along with our future plans of growth strategies. With this tool, we are able to anticipate our sales within reason that then can allow for us to control our costs in conjunction with inventory which will then help us to enhance our customer service. Sales forecasting is a vital strategic tactic in our company’s methodology.
Forecasting is used in all businesses. Forecasting is used to help businesses decide how much they should produce and where to sell a product. Forecasting can aid a company in knowing the lifecycle of a product, which can help them to determine when and if they should discontinue a product. Forecasting can also help managers close the gap between supply and demand. If a forecast is properly predicted the supply of a product can satisfy the demand of the product. Forecasting is not always accurate however, and can lead to either over production of a product or underproduction of a product.
Economics is often called the "science of decision making." The decisions that economists analyze range from personal decisions such as how big a pizza to order or whether to buy or lease a new car to the decisions the federal government makes about things like the size of our military. Economists use information about these, and other decisions, to develop indicators that can be used to determine the health of our economy. Just as a physician relies on indicators such as temperature, blood pressure and heart rate to determine the health of a patient, economists use indicators like gross domestic product growth, the unemployment rate and the rate of inflation to predict our
Gather information about its potential and current customers, this helps to understand the customer, improve their services and make more informed decisions hence reducing risk.
Greaves provided five years and two months of annual sales data. Using Stat Tools, the following analysis were run: Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing Simple, Exponential Smoothing Holt’s, and Exponential Smoothing Winter’s. Following a comparison on the average on all models, the Exponential Smoothing Winter’s was found to be the most suitable model for the case. A graph
Rugged, stylish, comfortable, economic, and most of all, dependable. The Ford F-150 is the pickup truck that changed the nation. From its very beginning, the Ford truck has taken care of its owner’s necessities from hauling hay to visiting family and friends. Since its inception, the Ford Motor Company (FMC) has earned the loyalty of its customers. Most of all, the ford pickup truck has earned the respect of farmers, families, and businessmen alike. How did the FMC earn the loyalty of the people? By creating the highest value possible for its customers. Ford provided the most reliable and economical vehicle in its time.
Forecasting is the methodology utilized in the translation of past experiences in an estimation of the future. The German market presents challenges for forecasting techniques especially for its retail segment. Commercially oriented organizations are used to help during forecasting as general works done by academic scientists are not easy to come across (Bonner, 2009).
It would only make sense that the company is paying attention to what their customers need, want, and think. If the company is up for it, they will create a loyal customer and a good sector in the marketplace in regards to their products.
But even this is not possible in case of a new product or innovation. A forecast of sales, demand, cash, requirements and several such business valuables are extremely essential for a business in order to be able to appropriately plan and conduct its operations in an effective and efficient manner. Yet, forecasts cannot be made accurately as there are several factors and changes in the current environment that leads to variations in forecasts and impacts or causes a manager to make changes in the forecasts.
Companies forecast in different ways and for different reasons. For the sake of my current employer, some of the reasons to why they forecast is to ensure that there are plenty of cellular phones in stock or even to make sure that the company has enough numbers to assign to customers when they purchase wireless service from us. The following paper will compare and contrast various forecasting methods while also elaborating on the method that my current employer use for forecasting sales and mobile identification number (MDN) requirements.
In my opinion, there are two top key decisions that Joe faces in regards to his situation. The first key decision is determining the basis for which Joe will model his coffee shop after. With supporting evidence from research, he must determine which indicators on taste/experience/price/etc. will ultimately establish his positioning in the competitive market. This is an important decision because it narrows the scope of his coffee shop’s situation and will aid him in taking the necessary steps towards determining key factors for success.
Economists use the retail sales data in their models to make predictions on a wide variety of economic issues. Again, because retails sales accounts for such a large proportion of GDP, it is used along with other factors as a way to estimate the direction of the quarterly and annual GDP numbers. Used in conjunction with data such as the consumer price index, it is also very relevant for inflation forecasts as the data can offer glimpses into the affects of rising or falling prices. This in turn is closely tied to predictions for the direction of future interest rates as potential additional government action. Finally the retail sales data can be used to estimate
As you requested, I have forecasted pro-forma statements and ratio analysis factors of The Body Shop International for Years 2001 through 2004, using the information presented in Bruner and the forecast assumptions on the Case Studies in Finance pages 120-126. I used these forecasted pro-forma statements as an Initial Scenario to analyze
One of the critical elements of the marketing research is the test market. For the Ajax pot pie there would be a combination of both quantitative and qualitative research done. This decision is based on the fact the methods are most beneficial when used together. According to Essentials of Marketing Research, qualitative research is research that addresses marketing objectives through techniques that allow the researcher to provide elaborate interpretations of market phenomena without depending on numerical measurement. The focus is on discovering true inner meaning and new insights. Quantitative research is marketing research that addresses research objectives through empirical assessments that involve numerical measurement and analysis. Because qualitative research is less structured, I would use this research method first.