Decision Trees - Chelst Chapter 10 Exercises – Kimberly Matthews
10.1 – Sequential decisions: Present an example of a sequence of two or more decisions followed by an uncertainty.
Should we open a bakery or a diner?
If we open a bakery, should we sell specialty items, like wedding cakes, or sell a variety of baked goods?
If we open a diner, should we be open from 6am – 11pm daily or should we be open 24 hours?
10.2 – Information gathering and decisions: Think of a decision scenario where decisions are interspersed with random events.
Avon wants to invent their own line of long-wearing lipstick (8+ hours). * Other companies already offer long-wearing lipstick, so will this just saturate the market? * Can Avon come up with
…show more content…
It is sensitive enough that a 5% decrease in the variable cost of the low investment strategy will cause a shift in the optimal strategy at around $25.90. b) What do you notice with regard to the slope?
The slope is zero for the high investment strategy because the variable cost of low investment does not affect it. The slope of the low investment strategy is negative. As the variable cost of the low investment increases, the expected value decreases.
10.5 a, b, d and F – a) Calculate the net profit of each combination of decision and competitor action.
Down Home opens a drive-thru with no competition: $84,000
Down Home opens a drive-thru with competition: $44,000
Down Home serves breakfast with no competition: $113,000
Down Home serves breakfast with competition: $33,000 b) What is the best alternative if no competitor opens nearby? Serving Breakfast.
What is the best alternative if a competitor opens nearby? Open a drive-thru. d) What decision should the company follow and what is the expected value? He should serve breakfast, because his expected value will be $85,000. f) Recall that the owner treated the layout redesign the same as other annual costs. Would the decision change if he considered only 50% of these redesign costs this year? He should change to doing a drive-thru service because his expected value would increase to $120,000.
10.6 b and c b) Should Red Hen
Each of us is confronted with decisions in our everyday lives that require us to gather and assess information on the different alternatives at hand and then make a decision. Examples of such decisions include the decision to attend college, buy a car or some other item, strike up a friendship with Person A or B, select a particular course, or take a trip to Point X or Y. You may have made an error in such decisions because your information was flawed by one or more of the errors of human inquiry that Babbie describes, or the decision may have been correct but for some of the wrong reasons. Recall and describe a decision you have made that may have been flawed to some extent
staff, management, and goals are in place to include them in the grid. Future plans must
This is to ensure that the necessary raw materials and physical resources are available at each stage, and that the workforce on site has the right skills for the scheduled work. The project management team will need to produce a series of planning documents that can be accessed throughout the project. Each member of the project management team must know their role and responsibilities, including which sections of the workforce they will be directly managing.
12) Suppose a firm has $1500 in variable costs and $500 in fixed costs when it produces 500
the indifference curves becomes steeper. That is now you are willing to give up more amount
(b) Assume that the individual’s utility function for profit is U(X) = X – 0.5X^2. Calculate the expected utility of each project and identify the preferred project according to his criterion.
This project charter is planned to help O’Donnell & O’Donnell LLP who will lead the project management team take place the parade smoothly. This parade for welcoming home troops will be organized in Colorado Spring which has a long history of military. This project charter’s goal is making sure project management team and sponsors understand all details and tasks of this parade and getting an agreement between these two parties. Some important tasks can be directed with the project charter. For examples, raising fund, arranging thousands of soldiers and planning a lunch
(b) Calculate by how much the proposed addition will either increase or reduce operating income. Show all work.
Jones Blair has the responsibility to analyze these options to evaluate the effect on the overall business operations within the firm. The VP of Advertising’s suggestion of $350k increase in to the marketing budget would create an increase in $1 million dollars to recoup the cost of this venture. His philosophy of accessing the do-it-yourselfers would not bring these individuals away from their primary focus which is retail location. The do-it-yourselfers are going to continue to visit Home Depot and other mass marketing stores despite advertising efforts. The cost benefit analysis would not be beneficial to Jones Blair.
v. What are the limitations, if any, to the estimates of the profitability of the two customers? (Hint: Consider what improvements could be made to the accounting system to obtain more accurate costs)
1. Discuss the principal reasons why project management has become such a popular business tool in recent years.
Intuitive decision making can be greatly influenced by biases and psychological traps. Jennifer Priestley and William Hakes in their paper titled “Problem Solving and Psychological Traps,” explained five such traps.
In today's business it is in the best interest of companies to have project managers. Common sense isn't always easily accomplished. Anyone who's ever worked on a project in a technical setting knows this. Indeed, much of working with others consists of solving unexpected problems and learning from mistakes along the way. Knowing this and having the proper tools a project manager will be able to manage and complete the most intense project out there.
Construction projects can be extremely complex and fraught with uncertainty. Risk and uncertainty can potentially have damaging consequences for the construction projects. Therefore nowadays, the risk analysis and management continue to be a major feature of the project management of construction projects in an attempt to deal effectively with uncertainty and unexpected events and to achieve project success. Risk is inherent on construction projects and disputes frequently arise. One in four construction projects results in a dispute that leads to arbitration or litigation. With large scale, complex projects the likelihood of serious, time-consuming and expensive claims increases.
The importance of decision making in individual daily life and in organization level was demonstrated by two scientists, Arkes and Hammond (1992), in ‘Judgment and Decision making’ indentified the four types of information which decision maker requires constructing a decision tree.