The Gallup Poll

While the majority claim that taking a step to deport people is cruel and inconsistent with our legal value that undocumented immigrant strengthen our economy and country. Claim-makers use the polls because they offer feedback at the early stages in the process and to determine whether their claim is effective or not. Policymakers often base their decision on what the polls say. Public opinion overall there is little support to deport all those undocumented immigrants in the U.S. nonetheless survey in the past have found great support for building a barrier along the Mexican border and change the constitution. This form of public- opinion is often viewed as inaccurate because polls are formalized situation in which people know they are being solicited for analysis and this can affect what they are willing to

A vast amount of public opinion polling takes place during election cycles. These polls are studied by evaluating a sample of a population. Pollsters aim to study random sample of the population to gain a true understand of the public opinion. Unfortunately, pollsters often run into what is known as a sample bias. This is when a sample does not represent the public true opinion. Instead in sample bias only a fragment of the opinions is present. Though polls are subject to error, they do have the ability to echo the sentiments of the population. I believe this is both most effective and prevalent in exit polls. The important of exit polls as highlighted in the article “Exit polls and voter turnout” by Asger Lau Anderson and Thomas Jensen. In the article the authors suggest that exit polls drive voters to get involved. They state that “In relation to the debate on the implications of exit polls, the most important insight from our analysis is the following. It may well happen that the incentive to vote increases after the revelation of an exit poll.” By suggesting this, the authors relay the idea that exit polls are the way to truly gain an understanding of the public opinion.

In order to determine if the poll is weak or strong, it is important to assess the ways in which the information/data for the poll is collected and how authentic it is. In order for the results, or conclusion, to be strong, the inductive generalization must not contain any fallacies. The sample size must also be large enough to represent a population, so it is not biased. A strong poll would show that the population was selected randomly, with consistently strong statistics, and a low margin error . A weak poll on the other hand, would be one

_____ Referring to Question #10 above, which of the following best describes why you might be cautious in relying on these results? (A) The sample size is too small to make any reliable inference about the entire population. (B) Silly questions sometimes generate silly responses, not true opinions. (C) The respondents may not be a representative sample of any population of interest. (D) Newspapers tend to skew results to fit their own agenda.

This sort of bland and spurious even-handedness is misleading. For example, Reiss and Roth withheld from their readers that there were at least nine other estimates contradicting the NCVS-based estimate; instead they vaguely alluded only to "a number of surveys,"[23] as did Cook,[24] and they down played the estimates from the other surveys on the basis of flaws which they only speculated those surveys might have. Even as speculations, these scholars' conjectures were conspicuously one-sided, focusing solely on possible flaws whose correction would bring the estimate down, while ignoring obvious flaws, such as respondents (Rs) forgetting or intentionally concealing DGUs, whose correction would push the estimate up. Further, die speculations, even if true, would be wholly inadequate to account for more than a small share of the enormous nine-to-one or more discrepancy between

Shining the OutRiderr Spotlight on a Washington Post article from May 19th By John Woodrow Cox, Scott Clement and Theresa Vargas.

The Quinnipiac University poll was done during early September to test the waters before the first presidential debate between Clinton and Trump. The sample size was roughly 960, supposedly voters from across the nation with a margin of error of +- 3.2 which isn’t horrible. The numbers look fine and because it was a nationwide poll, the possibility of getting a fair and accurate cross section of views is fairly high, that being said there are a few issues with this poll that cause me to be concerned with the accuracy of this poll for many reasons.

Angus Reid used a margin of error correctly as you stated, “The report from the Angus Reid Institute clearly stated that the margin of error was used for "comparison purposes only."”

Overall, The Marist Poll, has a respectable reputation. It was founded in 1978, and is considered the “first college based research center to include undergraduates in conducting survey research” (Marist 2017). Accordingly, Marist College places a strong emphasis on academic led-research. Several news networks such as CNN, FOX, and NBC have cited The Marist Poll in their articles. Additionally, FiveThirtyEight has given Marist College polling an “A” grade for its accuracy (Nate Silver 538). Marist does not have a history of partisan or ideological bias. However, as with any polling entity, their results should be analyzed assiduously.

Williams is illogical in his presentation of facts and figures, which does not aid his argument. The University of North Caroline presents a handout on statistics which helps writers know the proper use for them in a paper and has the following questions to ask yourself about the research: “What is the data’s background? Does your evidence come from reliable sources? Are all data reported? Have the data been interpreted correctly?” Williams fails to answer these questions, for example, “The Oklahoma Council of Public Affairs commissioned a civic education poll among public school students. A surprising 77% didn't know that George Washington was the first President; couldn't name Thomas Jefferson as the author of the Declaration of Independence; and only 2.8% of the students actually passed the citizenship test. Along similar lines, the Goldwater Institute of Phoenix did the same survey and only 3.5% of

The title of the article is a little misleading because the polls that are misleading are the ones that need to “stop the polling insanity.” Will they? No. So, the point of the article is that it is up to the individual reading the polls to assess

Gallup, New Mexico, is a border town just outside the Navajo Nation reservation with an estimated 22,000 residents; however, that number nearly triples on the first of the month. Social Security checks are distributed to elders and veterans on the first of the month, and most tribal members have neither access to a local bank nor sufficient consumer spending options on the reservation. Therefore, most Navajos end up driving for an hour or more to purchase much needed groceries, lumber, auto-parts, and kid's school clothes in border towns such as Gallup. According to the University of New Mexico Bureau of Business and Economic Analysis study, significant competition for retail dollars from the Navajo Nation is spread among several surrounding

The first difference between the two polls exists with regards to the question, “Do you think the U.S. government is doing enough or not doing enough to prevent a future terrorist attack on American soil?” (See Appendix A for graphic depiction). Overall, the respondents in my convenience poll were more diverse in their response choice, with the largest percentage being those who think the Unite States Government was doing enough at 46.43% and the lowest percent being those who are unsure at 25%. This is only a 21.43 point gap. Whereas the scientific poll showed a

This then leads into what is the sample size is too small and is not a great representation of the overall population. If the sample size is too small, it could lead to selection bias which is when the sample does a terrible job representing the actual ideologies of the population in that area. Push polling, which is asking questions in a way that gives the pollster the answer that is being sought out, is often another technique used to potentially skew the outcome. All of these are factors that could potentially be important when it comes to the outcome of the polls. Make sure to keep in mind that whenever a poll is taken there is always a way that someone/something can skew it to their

This discrepancy also meant that the sample was unrepresentative of the population. Convenience sampling also allows the opportunity for bias to affect the results. Future research could look at a larger more representative sample to overcome this.