Term Project Specification Predator-Prey Model and Analysis of the Wolf-Moose Relationship Administrative Information John Suarez: dynamic analysis, research David Shuttleworth: system engineer, UML modeling System being modeled This project plans on modeling a dynamic system predator-prey relationship. The wolf-moose relationship of Isle Royal represents a unique location where moose is solely preyed upon by wolves. And wolves prey mostly just on moose; however, it has been noted that beavers have been a secondary food source. The wolf and moose population in this locale has been studied thoroughly and population statistics have been recorded for over 50 years. Evidence supporting external factors that have had an effect on the populations …show more content…
Attempts will be made to include other variables such as periods of disease or abnormally harsh climate conditions, which will have an effect on the population. Goals and Objectives On the About the Project page, the Wolf-Moose Project poses the question of whether nature is “contingent or deterministic.” Even after five decades of tracking the populations and relationship between wolves and moose, an answer to this question eludes ecologists and scientists. In our project we hope to further explore this question from a modeling and simulation perspective. We hope the methodologies and technologies we have learned in MSIM 510 Model Engineering will shed light on the variability and randomness that exists in Nature. Three main objects are listed below. Existence of External Factors We will attempt to verify that the predator-prey relationship of the Isle Royal of Michigan wolves and moose are also dependent on external factors such as the environment and man. Evidence suggests that this is the case but we intend to reproduce this factor in our model. Cross validation will be used to determine if earlier events can help predict known events that occur decades …show more content…
We hope to employ machine learning techniques that may lead to a model that can better predict future issues for planning and conservation. Model Formulation The wolf-moose relationship will first be modeled using UML. The purpose and requirements of the conceptual model will be captured using UML via use case diagrams. Furthermore, a class diagram will be used to document the system components, and a state diagram will be used to capture the possible states of a wolf and moose. The state diagram may also be used as a building block for possible Markov Chain and Bayesian Net models. Sequence and Activity diagrams will also be generated to model the dynamic behavior of the predator-prey relationship. This model will be particularly useful for building a dynamic model. The system will be modeled using a Bayesian Network or Markov Model. These types of models may be useful for determining cause of moose death: natural causes or harvested by wolves. This model will be based on historical data where the predator-prey relationship was particularly isolated to external
The trophy hunting of at-risk grizzly bears is a controversial topic in Canada. It is part of the Canadian cultural inheritance. Hunting grizzly bears are considered to be a legitimate recreational activity in some parts of Canada. They inhabit in the forest and near the costal line. The numbers of bear reached tens of thousands before, but because they are fierce and threatening human beings, they are being hunted and killed. Also, the low mortality rate of grizzly means low population, but they play a critical role as a predator in the ecosystem. The problem is over-hunting and industrialization will cause extinction of this rare species, and lead to disharmony between the government and First Nations. I mainly support the ban of grizzly
“Restoring an ecologically complete ecosystem in Yellowstone requires the return of willows--and with them, beavers. There's a clear threshold for ecosystem recovery. Willow stands must be more than 6 feet tall, the scientists found. That height is important, says Marshall. Then willows are beyond the reach of browsing elk, and can serve as seed sources for new young willows. Once willows have returned, beavers will gnaw down a certain number of them to build dams. The dams will further slow stream flow, allowing yet more willows to grow. The results offer new insights on the role of wolf-driven trophic cascades in the Yellowstone ecosystem, says Hobbs. Trophic cascades like that in Yellowstone occur when predators--or the lack thereof--in an ecosystem change the abundance or alter traits of their prey, in turn affecting the next lower trophic level.” ("National Science Foundation", 2013)
Originally, there were no predators of the moose on the island and, for several decades; the moose population was only affected by the availability of food and various weather conditions. With the introduction of a predator to the ecosystem, a three tiered trophic environment emerged.
The state legislature has favored the ranching industry above ecology and continues to do so. Public polls “conducted by Boise State indicate that the overwhelming majority of Idahoans (nearly 70 percent) support wolf restoration” (Laverty, par. 4) and the legislature is seeking to remedy this by re-educating the public with “a balanced view of the impact of wolves on big game species, those sectors of the economy dependent upon sport hunting, livestock, domestic animals, and humans” (State, 3). Furthermore, the “cost of wolf reintroduction will be presented as a part of any public education program including direct and indirect costs” (State, 3).
By looking at the graph from 4.1 there is a pattern of existence between the population of moose and wolves where both the moose and wolves population fluctuates constantly. When the moose was abundant their food source was low. When the wolves came they lowered the moose population in turn raising
Since organisms living in communities form interdependent relationships, a change in the abundance of one species will not only affect the physical and more direct interactions, but could indirectly affect the number of other species within the community as a consequence (Wootton 1993). These indirect affects rise because the interactions between pairs of species are not independent of other species, such as increasing the density of vegetation may increase the survival rate of the prey, reducing the intensity of the interaction between the predator and prey (Wootton 1993, 1994). An
Predators play a fundamental role in maintaining ecosystem health. Research strongly supports the contributions of wolves in particular to the functioning and stability
Grizzlies and black bears have been moved hundreds of miles away from their homes. Two were shot by hunters within two weeks of their relocation, and others have simply returned to their homes.(17) Wolves have been slaughtered in order to "let the moose population rebound and provide a higher harvest for local hunters."(18) In the early 1990s, a program designed to reduce the wolf population backfired when snares failed to kill victims quickly, and photos of suffering wolves were viewed by an outraged public.(19)
In May, 2016, 20 calves were killed and not eaten in four days in the area of the Absaroka Mountains, outside of Pinedale Wyoming. (Urbigkit ,2016) However, it doesn’t stop there, every day livestock and wildlife are killed and rarely eaten by wolves in almost every western state. This is a problem that needs to be addressed before ranchers lose their herds, and before the wild herds are depleted beyond restoration. If the wolf situation was bad a couple years ago, well now it’s worse, even some of the “protectors of wildlife” are starting to come to their senses.
In Yellowstone National Park, scientists have been carefully documenting the impacts of wolves on the ecosystem, noting many changes for the better since reintroduction, (Berger et al. 2008; Beschta and Ripple 2010). As the ecosystem depends on the Gray Wolf to properly function predation, the wolves also regulate distribution and group size of each species, which impacts overall native biodiversity. Wolves primarily prey on large hoofed mammals such as deers, elk and moose. By preying on the most vulnerable (diseased, young, old, weak or injured) individuals, wolves can help keep prey populations more healthy and strong, (Carbyn
There are few types of wolves that live in canada. The wolves that are left in Canada we should cherish, because soon they will become so rare, that there population could be whipped out. Firstly there is the Arctic wolf, which is usually found up North where it is cold in Canada, the Arctic wolves have beautiful thick white fur. The second wolf that i will tell you about is the grey wolf, the grey wolf is a more common wolf but none the less gorgeous with its gray and black fur. The grey wolfs used to roam the united states, but almost all of them were exterminated. Now the grey wolves habitat is excluded to Canada, Alaska, the Great Lakes, northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest. The next wolf i
The effect of the new wolf population was a miracle beyond hope, the ecosystem began to recover and diversify greatly. When the wolves were introduced it was found that they killed elk and restored their numbers to something the ecosystem could carry in conjunction with other species who feed on similar resources. In this way a surge of beaver population can be noted, as a result of beaver population increase the rivers became more stable and lodging was created for a half dozen species. It was also found that with the hunting of elk wolves left behind food for other animals whose populations also greatly benefited from this new predator. With the reintroduction of this alpha predator, the ecosystem made great strides toward recovering and diversifying, stream traveled slowly, meandered less and forest began to grow anew. Despite some arguments that Grey Wolves are a menace to the area or sensationalist report trying to discredit the wolf the results are clear. While man was responsible for the over hunting of the Grey Wolf in the 20th century, at its end the mistakes were rectified and the ecosystem shifted back into
Reintroduction of wolves brought about recovery of plants and animals in Yellowstone National Park. In 1990s, deer were overpopulated due to absence of its predator, wolves. Regardless of people’s efforts, the number of deer kept increasing. As a result,
The reading suggests that two possible causes: the environmental pollution and predators attacks. However, the lecture defends that is more probabily is the predators attacks.
The Lotka-Volterra competition model represents the outcome of competition between populations of two species over ecological time. The possible competitive outcomes from the two species