preview

Wolf Moose Project

Decent Essays

Term Project Specification Predator-Prey Model and Analysis of the Wolf-Moose Relationship Administrative Information John Suarez: dynamic analysis, research David Shuttleworth: system engineer, UML modeling System being modeled This project plans on modeling a dynamic system predator-prey relationship. The wolf-moose relationship of Isle Royal represents a unique location where moose is solely preyed upon by wolves. And wolves prey mostly just on moose; however, it has been noted that beavers have been a secondary food source. The wolf and moose population in this locale has been studied thoroughly and population statistics have been recorded for over 50 years. Evidence supporting external factors that have had an effect on the populations …show more content…

Attempts will be made to include other variables such as periods of disease or abnormally harsh climate conditions, which will have an effect on the population. Goals and Objectives On the About the Project page, the Wolf-Moose Project poses the question of whether nature is “contingent or deterministic.” Even after five decades of tracking the populations and relationship between wolves and moose, an answer to this question eludes ecologists and scientists. In our project we hope to further explore this question from a modeling and simulation perspective. We hope the methodologies and technologies we have learned in MSIM 510 Model Engineering will shed light on the variability and randomness that exists in Nature. Three main objects are listed below. Existence of External Factors We will attempt to verify that the predator-prey relationship of the Isle Royal of Michigan wolves and moose are also dependent on external factors such as the environment and man. Evidence suggests that this is the case but we intend to reproduce this factor in our model. Cross validation will be used to determine if earlier events can help predict known events that occur decades …show more content…

We hope to employ machine learning techniques that may lead to a model that can better predict future issues for planning and conservation. Model Formulation The wolf-moose relationship will first be modeled using UML. The purpose and requirements of the conceptual model will be captured using UML via use case diagrams. Furthermore, a class diagram will be used to document the system components, and a state diagram will be used to capture the possible states of a wolf and moose. The state diagram may also be used as a building block for possible Markov Chain and Bayesian Net models. Sequence and Activity diagrams will also be generated to model the dynamic behavior of the predator-prey relationship. This model will be particularly useful for building a dynamic model. The system will be modeled using a Bayesian Network or Markov Model. These types of models may be useful for determining cause of moose death: natural causes or harvested by wolves. This model will be based on historical data where the predator-prey relationship was particularly isolated to external

Get Access