2. National Scan, Inc., sells radio frequency inventory tags. Monthly sales for a seven-month period were as follows: Month Sales (000 units) Feb. Mar. 18 Apr. 15 20 18 May Jun. Jul. 22 Aug. 20 a. Plot the monthly data on a sheet of graph paper. b. Forecast September sales volume using each of the following: (1) The naive approach (2) A five-month moving average (3) A weighted average using .60 for August, .30 for July, and .10 for June
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- Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?
- The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?Trail Questions National Scan, Inc., sells radio frequency inventory tags. Monthly sales for a seven-month period were as follows: Month Sales ('000 units) Feb. 19 Mar. 18 Apr 15 May 20 Jun. 18 Jul. 22 Aug. 20 Forecast September sales volume using each of the following: (1) A linear trend equation. (2) A five-month moving average (3) Exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant equal to .20, assuming a March forecast of 19('000) (4) A weighted average using 0.60 for the most recent month, 0.30 for the next most recent, and 0.10 for the next.3. National Mixer, Inc., sells can openers. Monthly sales for a seven-month period were as follows: , Sales Month (000 units) Feb. 19 Mar. 18 15 20 18 22 20 Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. a. Plot the monthly data on a sheet of graph paper. b. Forecast September sales volume using each of the following: (1) A linear trend equation. (2) A five-month moving average. (3) Exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant equal to .20, assuming a March forecast of 19,000. (4) The naive approach. (5) A weighted average using .60 for August, .30 for July, and .10 for June. Which method seems least appropriate? Why? d. What does use of the term sales rather than demand presume? C. ...
- National Scan, Inc., sells radio frequency inventory tags. Monthly sales for a seven-month period were as follows: Month Feb. Sales (000)Units 16 Mar 18 Apr. 13 May. 20 Jun. 22 Jul. Aug. 23 28 Click here for the Excel Data File a. Forecast September sales volume using each of the following: (1) The naive approach. Naive approach thousands 13Consider the following sales data for Bell, Inc. Month Sales ($ Millions) Jan. 10 Feb. 12 March 14 April 16 May 18 June 23 July 26 Aug. 31 Sept. 27 Oct. 18 Nov. 16 Dec. 14 a. Use a three-month weighted moving average to forecast the sales for the months April through December. Use weights of (3/6), (2/6), and (1/6), giving more weight to more recent data. b. Use exponential smoothing with α = 0.30 to forecast the sales for the months April through December. The forecast for January was $12 million. c. Compare the performance of the two methods by using the bias and MAD as the performance criteria. Which performance method is the most reasonable? Why?3. A mobile phone store owner wants to predict the demand for mobile phones in October based on the following historical sales data: Month- April May June. July August September Number of phones sold. 100, 140- 110. 150. 120. 160- a. What is this month's forecast using Naive approach b. Using 3-Month Moving Average, develop forecasts for October's demand c. Using 5-Month Moving Average, develop forecasts for October's demand d. When making moving average forecasts, is it better to use a larger time span? -
- The following gives the number of pints of type B blood used at Woodlawn Hospital in the past 6 weeks: Week Of Pints Used August 31 360 September 7 389 September 14 410 September 21 381 September 28 368 October 5 374 a. Forecast the demand for the week of October 12 using a 4-week moving average. [Select] b. What is the MAD? [Select] c. Use a 4-week weighted moving average, with weights of .1, .3, .6, and .8 using .8 for the most recent week. Forecast demand for the week of October 12. [Select] d. What is the MAD? [Select] e. Compute the forecast for the week of October 12 using exponential smoothing with a forecast for August 31 of 363 and a = .47 [Select] f. What is the MAD? [Select] g. Based on evaluating all three forecasting models, which forecast should be chosen? [Select]The following gives the number of pints of type B blood used at Woodlawn Hospital in the past 6 weeks: Pints Used Week Of August 31 360 September 7 389 September 14 410 September 21 381 September 28 368 October 5 374 a. Forecast the demand for the week of October 12 using a 4-week moving average. [Select] b. What is the MAD? [Select] c. Use a 4-week weighted moving average, with weights of .1, .1, .2, and .6 using .6 for the most recent week. Forecast demand for the week of October 12. [Select ] d. What is the MAD? [Select ] > e. Compute the forecast for the week of October 12 using exponential smoothing with a forecast for August 31 of 363 and a = [Select] .47 f. What is the MAD? [Select] g. Based on evaluating all three forecasting models, which forecast should be chosen? [Select]Q5) Monthly sales for a six month period are as follows: Month SalesJan 18,000Feb 22,000Mar 16,000Apr 18,000May 20,000June 24,000 Compute the sales forecast for July using the following approaches: (1) Four-month moving average; (2) Weighted three-month moving average using .50 for June, .30 for May and .20 for April;(3) Exponential smoothing with α (smoothing constant) equal to .40, assuming a February forecast of 18,000