A company is considering whether to develop and market a particular product. There is 40% probability that the research and development department will come up with a viable product, and a 60% probability that the product will be scrapped. The cost of undertaking the research and development is 200 000. If the product development is successful, the company will build a plant. The product demand is unknown, and the company has the choice of building a large or small plant. The expected demand and the net present value is shown below: High Demand Low Demand ACTION Probability 75% Probability 25% Large Plant N$1 600 000 N$400 000 Small Plant N$1 000 000 N$1 000 000 Required: Advise the company on the most beneficial course of action using a decision tree.
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A company is considering whether to develop and market a particular product. There is 40% probability that the research and development department will come up with a viable product, and a 60% probability that the product will be scrapped. The cost of undertaking the research and development is 200 000.
If the product development is successful, the company will build a plant. The product demand is unknown, and the company has the choice of building a large or small plant. The expected demand and the
High Demand | Low Demand | |
ACTION | Probability 75% | Probability 25% |
Large Plant | N$1 600 000 | N$400 000 |
Small Plant | N$1 000 000 | N$1 000 000 |
Required:
Advise the company on the most beneficial course of action using a decision tree.
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- Given the following conditional value table, determine the appropriate decision assuming that each state of nature has an equal likelihood of occurring: States of Nature Alternatives Large plant Very Favorable Market $275,000 Average Market $100,000 Unfavorable Market - $150,000 Small plant Overtime Do nothing $200,000 $60,000 -$10,000 $100,000 $40,000 -$1,000 $0 $0 $0 The appropriate decision is to which has an EMV = $ (round your response to the nearest whole number).The owner of a small business is considering three options: buying a computer, leasing a computer, or getting along without a computer. Based on the information obtained from the firm's accountant, the following payoff table (in terms of net. profit) was developed: State of Nature State # 1 State # 2 State # 3 Alternative (S1) (S2) (S3) A1 6. A2 АЗ 4 Based on the probability for each state of nature in previous question(the probability for S1 to happen equals the probability of S2; the probability for S2 to happen is three times of S3). What is the EVPI? O 5.29 O Can't be computed with the given information O 114 O 642Problem 1) The Nitro Fertilizer Company is developing a new fertilizer. If Nitro markets the product and it is successful, then the company will earn a $50,000 profit; if it is unsuccessful, the company will lose $50,000. In that past, similar products have been successful 55% of the time. At a cost of $10,000, the effectiveness of the new fertilizer can be tested. If the test result is favorable, there is an 80% chance that the fertilizer will be successful. If the test result is unfavorable, there is only a 30% chance that the fertilizer will be successful. There is a 60% chance of a favorable test result and a 40% chance of an unfavorable test result. a) Construct a decision tree to determine Nitro's optimal strategy b) Find the EVSI and EVPI Note I need solution of part A only
- Problem 1) The Nitro Fertilizer Company is developing a new fertilizer. If Nitro markets the product and it is successful, then the company will earn a $50,000 profit; if it is unsuccessful, the company will lose $50,000. In that past, similar products have been successful 55% of the time. At a cost of $10,000, the effectiveness of the new fertilizer can be tested. If the test result is favorable, there is an 80% chance that the fertilizer will be successful. If the test result is unfavorable, there is only a 30% chance that the fertilizer will be successful. There is a 60% chance of a favorable test result and a 40% chance of an unfavorable test result. a) Construct a decision tree to determine Nitro's optimal strategy b) Find the EVSI and EVPI I need solution of part (b) onlySun TV sells TV sets. It does not sell smart TVs so customers do not come to Sun TV if they want to purchase smart TVs. Sun TV wants to start selling smart TVs and will only sell smart TVs to customers to whom they advertise. Managers use customer information (income level, previous purchase history) to decide which customers they should target. The team needs to decide how sure it must be in predicting customer interest in a smart TV. If it is too cautious, it will choose a very high cutoff probability and only market to customers who it believes are very likely to be in the market for a smart TV. This may cause them to miss out on many customers. If they are too aggressive and choose a low cutoff probability, they may identify more individuals interested in buying smart TVs but also end up wasting marketing dollars on customers who are not interested in purchasing smart TVs. To choose a cutoff probability, the team develops the confusion matrices below for two cutoff probabilities on…Howard Weiss, Inc., is considering building a sensitive new radiation scanning device. His managers believe that there is a probability of 0.40 that the ATR Co. will come out with a competitive product. If Weiss adds an assembly line for the product and ATR Co. does not follow with a competitive product, Weiss's expected profit is $40,000; if Weiss adds an assembly line and ATR follows suit, Weiss still expects $20,000 profit. If Weiss adds a new plant addition and ATR does not produce a competitive product, Weiss expects a profit of $600,000; if ATR does compete for this market, Weiss expects a loss of $100,000. a) Expected value for the Add Assembly Line option = $ (enter your answer as a whole number).
- 2. A real estate developer must decide on a plan for developing a certain piece of property. After careful consideration, the developer has two acceptable alternatives: residential proposal or commercial proposal. The main factor or state of nature that will influence the profitability of the development is whether or not a shopping center is built close by and the size of the shopping center. There is a 20% chance of no center being built, a 50% chance of a medium shopping center built, and a 30% chance of a large shopping center. If the developer selects the residential proposal and no center is built, he has a further set of options: do nothing $400,000 payoff; build a small shopping center himself $700,000 payoff; or put in a park resulting in $800,000 payoff. Should a medium shopping center be built nearby, his payoff for residential would be $1,600,000 and large shopping center results in a $1,200,000 payoff. If the developer selects the commercial proposal and no center is…Howard Weiss, Inc., is considering building a sensitive new radiation scanning device. His managers believe that there is a probability of 0.6 that the ATR Co. will come out with a competitive product. If Weiss adds an assembly line for the product and ATR Co. does not follow with a competitive product, Weiss's expected profit is $40,000; if Weiss adds an assembly line and ATR follows suit, Weiss still expects $10,000 profit. If Weiss adds a new plant addition and ATR does not produce a competitive product, Weiss expects a profit of $600,000; if ATR does compete for this market, Weiss expects a loss of $100,000. What is the best decision based on expected monetary value (EMV)? What are the EMV and the expected value of perfect information (EVPI)? The best decision is to select the new plant with the EMV of $320,000 and the EVPI is $364,000. The best decision is to select the assembly line with the EMV of $180,000 and the EVPI is $66,000. The best decision is to select the assembly line…Howard Weiss, Inc., is considering building a sensitive new radiation scanning device. His managers believe that there is a probability of 0.35 that the ATR Co. will come out with a competitive product. If Weiss adds an assembly line for the product and ATR Co. does not follow with a competitive product, Weiss's expected profit is $50,000; if Weiss adds an assembly line and ATR follows suit, Weiss still expects $20,000 profit. If Weiss adds a new plant addition and ATR does not produce a competitive product, Weiss expects a profit of $600,000; if ATR does compete for this market, Weiss expects a loss of $120,000. a) Expected value for the Add Assembly Line option = $ $ 39500 (enter your answer as a whole number). Expected value for the Build New Plant option = $ (enter your answer as a whole number). %3D
- A software company recently designed and developed a new service for its customers. However, it needs to decide whether to launch the service next month or wait for six months. The company performs research and discovers the probability of success for both options, along with their potential revenue. It also learns the probability of failure and corresponding losses for each. *Option A: Launching the service next month has a 55% probability of success with potential revenue of $250,000. It has a 45% probability of failure with a potential loss of $125,000.* *Option B: Launching the service in six months has a 65% probability of success with potential revenue of $400,000. It has a 35% probability of failure with a potential loss of $200,000.* Which option should the company pursue?Maverick Ltd is considering whether to develop and market a new product. Development the costs are estimated to be R180 000, and there is a 0.75 probability that development effort will be successful and a 0.25 probability that the development effort will be unsuccessful. If the development is successful, the product will be marketed and it is estimated that:a. If the product is very successful profits will be R540 000;b. If the product is moderately successful profits will be R100 000;c. If the product is a failure, there will be a loss of R400 000.Each of the above profit and loss calculations is after taking into account the development costs of R180 000. The estimated probabilities of each of the above events are as follows:d. Very successful 40%e. Moderately successful 30%f. Failure 30%Required3.1. Construct a decision tree to illustrate the scenario above (7)3.2. Calculate the Expected Value (8)Bill Holliday isn't sure what he should do. He can build a four-apartment building, a two-apartment building, gather additional information, or simply do nothing. If he gathers additional information, the results could be favorable or unfavorable, but it would cost him $3,000 to gather it. Bill thinks there is a 50-50 chance that the information will be favorable. If the rental market is favorable, Bill will earn $15,000 with four apartments or $5,000 with two. He does not have the financial resources to pursue both options, but with an unfavorable rental market he would lose $20,000 with four apartments or $10,000 with two. Without gathering additional information, Bill estimates the probability of a favorable rental market to be 0.7. A favorable survey report would increase the probability of a favorable rental market to 0.9. Moreover, an unfavorable report of the additional information would decrease the probability of a favorable income market to 0.4. Of course, Bill can forget…