A major traffic problem in the Greater Cincinnati area involves traffic attempting to cross the Ohio River from Cincinnati to Kentucky using Interstate 75. Let us assume that the probability of no traffic delay in one period, given no traffic delay in the preceding period, is 0.95 and that the probability of finding a traffic delay in one period, given a delay in the preceding period, 0.75. Traffic is classified as having either a delay or a no-delay state, and the period considered is 30 minutes. (a) Assume that you are a motorist entering the traffic system and receive a radio report of a traffic delay. What is the probability that for the next 60 minutes (two time periods) the system will be in the delay state? Note that this result is probability of being in the delay state for two consecutive periods. 0.714 (b) What is the probability that in the long run the traffic will not be in the delay state? No Traffic Delay - 0.1 0.25 Traffic Delay *2 |x (c) An important assumption of the Markov process models presented in this chapter has been the constant or stationary transition probabilities as the system operates in the future. Discuss this assumption in the context of this traffic problem O safe to assume that the transition probabilities will be constant for this traffic problem. The transition o change with the time of day. It is not probabilities of moving between states of Traffic Delay and No Traffic Delay could
A major traffic problem in the Greater Cincinnati area involves traffic attempting to cross the Ohio River from Cincinnati to Kentucky using Interstate 75. Let us assume that the probability of no traffic delay in one period, given no traffic delay in the preceding period, is 0.95 and that the probability of finding a traffic delay in one period, given a delay in the preceding period, 0.75. Traffic is classified as having either a delay or a no-delay state, and the period considered is 30 minutes. (a) Assume that you are a motorist entering the traffic system and receive a radio report of a traffic delay. What is the probability that for the next 60 minutes (two time periods) the system will be in the delay state? Note that this result is probability of being in the delay state for two consecutive periods. 0.714 (b) What is the probability that in the long run the traffic will not be in the delay state? No Traffic Delay - 0.1 0.25 Traffic Delay *2 |x (c) An important assumption of the Markov process models presented in this chapter has been the constant or stationary transition probabilities as the system operates in the future. Discuss this assumption in the context of this traffic problem O safe to assume that the transition probabilities will be constant for this traffic problem. The transition o change with the time of day. It is not probabilities of moving between states of Traffic Delay and No Traffic Delay could
Chapter8: Sequences, Series,and Probability
Section8.7: Probability
Problem 4ECP: Show that the probability of drawing a club at random from a standard deck of 52 playing cards is...
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Transcribed Image Text:A major traffic problem in the Greater Cincinnati area involves traffic attempting to cross the Ohio River from Cincinnati to
Kentucky using Interstate 75. Let us assume that the probability of no traffic delay in one period, given no traffic delay in the
preceding period, is 0.95 and that the probability of finding a traffic delay in one period, given a delay in the preceding period, is
0.75. Traffic is classified as having either a delay or a no-delay state, and the period considered is 30 minutes.
(a) Assume that you are a motorist entering the traffic system and receive a radio report of a traffic delay. What is the
probability that for the next 60 minutes (two time periods) the system will be in the delay state? Note that this result is the
probability of being in the delay state for two consecutive periods.
0.714
(b) What is the probability that in the long run the traffic will not be in the delay state?
No Traffic Delay
*- 0.1
Traffic Delay
*2- 0.25
(c) An important assumption of the Markov process models presented in this chapter has been the constant or stationary
transition probabilities as the system operates in the future. Discuss this assumption in the context of this traffic problem.
O safe to assume that the transition probabilities will be constant for this traffic problem. The transition
o change with the time of day.
It is not
probabilities of moving between states of Traffic Delay and No Traffic Delay could
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