A stock market analyst is using a exponential smoothing and wanting to give a quick read out on a stock their firm is looking to invest in. The analyst finds that their last predicted closing price on the stock was below the actual price. What should the analyst know about their next prediction on the closing price of the stock? their next forecast will be less than the actual price their next forecast will be more than their latest prediction. O their next forecast will be greater than the actual price O their next forecast will be less than their latest prediction.
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- te stock price follows a random walk, the price today is said to be equal to the prior period price plus the expected return for the period with any remaining difference from the actual return considered to be: Mutle Choice 0 an overall market abnormality due to new information related to the stock O predictable amount based on the past prices. ✔Consider an event study of the following stock. Realised return Market return t = 0 (event day) 0.1 0.1 t =1 0.06 0.04 t = 2 0.03 0.02 t = 3 0.015 0.01 Suppose that the estimated market model is . What is the CAR (cumulative abnormal returns) for t = 3?You have estimated the following probability distributions of expected future returns for Stocks X and Y: Stock X Stock Y Probability Return Probability Return 0.1 -12 % 0.2 4 % 0.1 11 0.2 7 0.3 14 0.3 11 0.3 30 0.2 17 0.2 40 0.1 30 What is the expected rate of return for Stock X? Stock Y? Round your answers to one decimal place.Stock X: % Stock Y: % What is the standard deviation of expected returns for Stock X? For Stock Y? Round your answers to two decimal places.Stock X: % Stock Y: % Which stock would you consider to be riskier? is riskier because it has a standard deviation of returns.
- A. If a stock costs $55 one month and drops to $45 the next month, what is the expected stock price the next month, if we assume the stock follows a random walk? B. Explain both technical and fundamental analysis and what form of the efficient market hypothesis corresponds to each.Assume that the CAPM is a good description of stock price returns. The market expected return is 7% with 11% volatility and the risk-free rate is 4% . New news arrives that does not change any of these numbers but it does change the expected return of the following stocks: a. At current market prices, which stocks represent buying opportunities?b. On which stocks should you put a sell order in?You are analyzing a stock that has the following returns given the various states of economy. State of Economy Probability Return Recession 0.12 -7.20 Normal 0.68 6.80 Boom 0.2 15.40 What is the expected return on this stock?
- You ask a stockbroker what the firm’s research department expects for the three (3) stocksabove, that is, Stock X, Y and Z. The broker responds with the following information:Stock Current Price Expected Price Expected Dividend X 22 24 0.75 Y 48 51 2.00 Z 37 40 1.25Required:B. Calculate the estimated future rate of return for Stock X, Y, and Z. C. Determine which stock is overvalued, undervalued, properly valued, and state whyD. Illustrate with the use of the Security Market Line (SML) how Stock X , Y and Z wouldappear on it.Suppose your expectations regarding the stock price are as follows: State of the Market Boom Normal growth Recession. Probability Ending Price 0.30 $ 140 0.22 110 0.48 80 Mean Standard deviation. Use the equations E (r) = Ep (s) r(s) and o² = Ep (s) [r(s) - E(r)]² to compute the mean and standard deviation of the HPR on stocks. Note: Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to 2 decimal places. HPR (including dividends) 55.5% 15.5 -14.0 % %The following traders have different expectations/beliefs as to how the price of a stock will develop in the future. Which trading strategy best meets the expectations for each trader? Eilidh expects the stock price to move a lot, but thinks there is a slightly higher Choose... chance for a significant decline Ying-Fen expects a moderate decline Choose... Sayan expects the stock price to move significantly in either direction Choose... Paul expects a moderate rise Choose... Divya expects the stock price to move very little, if at all Choose...
- A challenge we run into when forecasting future stock returns is that stock returns compound. So, when using historical averages to forecast the future, we need to average together the arithmetic and geometric average returns using Blume's Formula: R(T) = T GeoAvg + NT Arith Avg N-1 In this formula, N is the number of historical annual returns you are using to calculate your averages and T is the number of future annual returns you are forecasting. Suppose you gather the following prices for a stock in order to calculate the last 10 (N = 10) annual returns. The stock does not pay dividends. Time 0 1 Time 0 calculate the last 10 (N=10) annual returns. The stock does not pay dividends. 1 2 3 4 5 10 6 . 7 8 9 10 Price $23.16 $32.81 Price $23.16 $32.81 $33.63 $36.83 $41.95 $41.04 $33.83 $37.45 $30.56 $29.90 $47.93 Using Blume's formula, what is the expected return per year for the next 4 years (T = 4)? Enter your answer as a percentage, rounded to the nearest 0.0001. For example, for…you are an investor who wants to express a long bias in stock XYZ between now and June expiration. You think the stock will finish above $125, but not go above $130. Which option strategy would get you long delta and be the best one to use to give your outlook?An analyst has estimated how a particular stock’s return will vary depending on what will happen to the economy. What is the standard deviation? STATE OF THEECONOMY PROBABILITY OFSTATE OCCURRING STOCK'S EXPECTEDRATE IF THISSTATE OCCURS Recession Below Average Average Above Average Boom .10 .20 .40 .20 .10 (.60) (.10) .15 .40 .90