In a base-rate neglect experiment, subjects are randomly divided into two groups, namely A and B. Subjects in Group A are told that Max has been randomly drawn from a population of 95% nurses and 5% doctors.Subjects in Group B are told that Max has been randomly drawn from a population of 5% nurses and 95% doctors. All subjects from both groups are provided with the following description about Max: Max lives in a beautiful house and drives an expensive car; he invests a lot of time in his career.All subjects from both groups are told that the probability that Max fits the description given that he is a doctor is 80%, and the probability that Max fits the description given that he is a nurse is 20%.All subjects from both groups are then asked to estimate the probability that Max is a doctor given that he fits the description.1. Suppose subjects in Group A correctly use the probability theory. What should be their estimate?From this please explain why this experiment can test base-rate neglect. What type of responses given by the two groups may imply that they exhibit base-rate neglect?

Given that, Subjects in Group A are told that Max has been randomly drawn from a population of 95%…

Answered: In a base-rate neglect experiment,…

Calculus For The Life Sciences

2nd Edition

ISBN:9780321964038

Author:GREENWELL, Raymond N., RITCHEY, Nathan P., Lial, Margaret L.

Publisher:GREENWELL, Raymond N., RITCHEY, Nathan P., Lial, Margaret L.

Chapter1: Functions

Section1.2: The Least Square Line

Problem 19E

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In a base-rate neglect experiment, subjects are randomly divided into two groups, namely A and B.

Subjects in Group A are told that Max has been randomly drawn from a population of 95% nurses and 5% doctors.
Subjects in Group B are told that Max has been randomly drawn from a population of 5% nurses and 95% doctors.
All subjects from both groups are provided with the following description about Max: Max lives in a beautiful house and drives an expensive car; he invests a lot of time in his career.
All subjects from both groups are told that the probability that Max fits the description given that he is a doctor is 80%, and the probability that Max fits the description given that he is a nurse is 20%.

All subjects from both groups are then asked to estimate the probability that Max is a doctor given that he fits the description.

1. Suppose subjects in Group A correctly use the probability theory. What should be their estimate?

From this please explain why this experiment can test base-rate neglect. What type of responses given by the two groups may imply that they exhibit base-rate neglect?

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