d. Compute MAPE for each data set. Which forecast appears to be more accurate? (Round your intermediate calculations to 2 decimal places and and final answers to 2 decimal places.) MAPE F1 % MAPE F2 % F2 appears to be more accurate.
Q: A. The Naive Approach B. Three month moving average C.A weighted moving average using 0.60 for the…
A: Forecasting techniques are used to predict future events. Forecasting is the process of estimating…
Q: Month 1 2 3 4 5 No. of Cases 105 115 120 120 125 Month 6 7 8 9 10 No. of Cases 125 130 140 145 150…
A: Given data is
Q: When creating a time series–based forecast for the amount of soda to be sold in thecafeteria next…
A: Step 1: When creating a time series–based forecast for the amount of soda to be sold in thecafeteria…
Q: What tool should we use to know whether our forecasting was under forecasted or over forcasted? Is…
A: This question is related to forecasting, we use several tools or parameters to check Bias, accuracy…
Q: Geries forecasting for Business In a regression model if you drop one insignificant variable then O…
A: The correct answer is
Q: The sales and profit of a clothing organization are represented in the table below. This given data…
A: 1. Following are three advantages of forecasting within an organization: A)You'll acquire…
Q: Complete the forecasting worksheets for: Naïve Average Moving Average Weighted Moving Average using…
A: Weighted Moving Average using the weights of .8, .15, and .05 ExponA use an alpha level of .75ExponB…
Q: Complete the forecasting worksheets for: Naïve Average Moving Average Weighted Moving Average…
A: Weighted Moving Average using the weights of .8, .15, and .05 ExponA using and an alpha level of .75…
Q: In exponential smoothing, if ɑ = 0.3, then the damping factor for use in forecasting should be: *…
A: Exponential smoothing is a forecasting method which identify the forecasting value using the…
Q: The moving average forecasting method is typically bestfor products:a) Functional b) Innovativec)…
A: The correct answer is option c) Mature. Moving Average formula is used to average the number of…
Q: 1. Calculate a forecast of the above demand using a three-month and a five-month moving average in a…
A: Since you have posted multiple questions, as per guideline we have answered the first three…
Q: It has been said that forecasting using exponential smoothing is like driving a car by looking in…
A: As there are multiple questions posted, as per policy will answer the first question only. If you…
Q: Add your personal life experiences or engagement on topic of forecasting and Quality management.
A: Forecasting and Quality Management. Forecasting is that the process of estimate and predicate about…
Q: Jsing trend-adjusted exponential smoothing, Forecasts (F,), Trend (T,), and Forecasts Including…
A: Given: α=0.20β=0.41(F1)=9 unitsT1=2 units Months Actual Demand (At) Forecast (Ft) Trend (Tt)…
Q: 2
A: Forecasting is a strategy that uses previous data as inputs to generate informed predictions about…
Q: snip
A: An exponential smoothing forecast becomes more responsive to changes in a data series when its alpha…
Q: Exercise # 2 –Calculating MADt, Revised MADt,Error,and the Revised Error :Has the Forecast Improved…
A: 2 period moving average forecast for revising: -
Q: Consider the following time series. t 1 2 3 4 5 yt 6 11 9 14 15 (a) Choose the correct…
A:
Q: Lori Cook has developed the following forecasting modaly = 36 + 4.3xwhere y = demand for Kool Air…
A: Demand forecasting is described as the process through which estimations of the future are made over…
Q: expertise
A: The answer to this question is false
Q: What method would you choose of forecasting technique, which requires subjective inputs obtained…
A: Forecasting is technique which uses past data in order to predict future trends. It is mainly used…
Q: a) The simple linear regression equation that relates bar sales to number of guests (not to time) is…
A: Below is the solution:-
Q: an estimate that was very close to the actual time of arrival. Considering these factors are…
A: Forecasting Revenues: Forecasting revenues is the process of calculating the future revenue of the…
Q: What should be our forecast accuracy target if there is a high degree of volatility in customer…
A: Thank you for you question. As per our guidelines, We will be answering the first question for you…
Q: Using MAD as a criterion, which technique has the better performance record?
A: MAD or Mean Absolute Deviation indicating the average value of the absolute errors. An efficient…
Q: The monthly sales for Yazici Batteries, Inc., were as follows: Month Jan Feb Mar Apr Мay Jun Jul Aug…
A: Given data- Month Sales Jan 20 Feb 21 Mar 16 Apr 15 May 15 Jun 16 Jul 17 Aug 19…
Q: Sales of quilt covers at Bud Banis' department store in Carbondale over the past year are shown…
A: Exponential smoothing is nothing but the time series predicting approach for univariate information…
Q: Which qualitative forecasting technique was developed to ensure that the input fromevery participant…
A: Forecasting is the way toward making forecasts of things to depend on at various times information…
Q: 15) Which is not considered to be an OPSCM execution process by any of the most popular models?…
A: 15.A. ReturnsOperations and Supply Chain Management(OPSCM) is a very vast process. The process…
Q: 4 .Substitute for Problem # 4 on in attachment)-Calculate the MAD,revised MAD and the Revised…
A: Given data is The revised forecast using the Naive method and revised MAD is shown below. As the…
Q: constants of .6 and .9, develop fo recasts for the sales of VWBeetles. What effect did the smoothing…
A: Note: - Since the data for the 'Volkswagen Beetles' question is not given we will answer the…
Q: Mary, Susan, and Sarah are running a beach boutique on the board walk of Ocean City. Their favorite…
A: Find the Given details below: Given details: Person Forecast data Mary 318 Susan 518…
Q: 101 Management's Forecast 122 114 a) What is the MAD for the forecast developed by management sales…
A: MAD shows the average deviations of the forecasted values in comparison to actual sales. MAPE is…
Q: Suppose actual quarterly sales (in thousands) for Year 5 are 193, 163, 207, and 105 respectively.…
A:
Q: The number of daily calls for the repair of Speedy copy machines has been recorded as follows: a.…
A: Formula:
Q: a. What is your forecast for December of Year 4, making period 1 as the starting period for the…
A: a) Period Demand Square of X Multiplication of x and y, XY 1 4507 1 4507 2 4400 4 8800…
Q: Consider the following forecasting model: x^t,t+1=axt+(1-a)x^t-1,t If a decreases from 0.5 to 0.2,…
A: The given question is about exponential smoothing.
Q: 1. Using MAD as the criterion, which of the following models would you use for the given time series…
A: The term "forecasting" describes the process of speculating on what will occur in the future based…
Q: F1 = F, + a(D, – F,) MA3 = (D1+D2+D3)/3 1+1 Week Calls МАЗ ES Squared Errors with MA3 Squared Errors…
A: 1) The 3-period moving average forecast can be determined in excel as follows: Thus, the forecast…
Q: some of lts laptop omputer for during the last 12 ins were as follows: Price Per Chip $1.85 Price…
A: Using the Formula : Alpha α = 0.1 Month Price per chip Forecast Error Absolute…
Q: Distinguish between Historical Analogy and the Delphi Method forecasting and discuss a business…
A: Historical analogy - Forecast in light of examining the item life cycle and the requests of…
Q: 1. It has been said that forecasting using exponential smoothing is like driving a car by looking in…
A: As specified, I have solved the second question for you. Kindly find it's answer ahead and post the…
Q: Which of the following are characteristics of qualitative forecasting methods? |- It is a function…
A: A qualitative method is a subjective method in which research is performed by considering the…
Q: The manager of a travel agency asked you to come up with a forecasting technique that will best fit…
A: Given - Smoothing constant (α) = 0.25 Period Demand F1 F2 1 115 - - 2 176 - - 3 97 146…
Q: Herman Hahn is attempting to set up an integrated forecasting and inventory controlsystem for his…
A: Time-series forecasting and seasonality factors in it:
Q: Holiday Lodge The Holiday Lodge is a large hotel and casino in the Adirondacks. The relatively new…
A:
Trending now
This is a popular solution!
Step by step
Solved in 2 steps with 2 images
- The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?
- The file P13_26.xlsx contains the monthly number of airline tickets sold by the CareFree Travel Agency. a. Create a time series chart of the data. Based on what you see, which of the exponential smoothing models do you think will provide the best forecasting model? Why? b. Use simple exponential smoothing to forecast these data, using a smoothing constant of 0.1. c. Repeat part b, but search for the smoothing constant that makes RMSE as small as possible. Does it make much of an improvement over the model in part b?The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?The owner of a restaurant in Bloomington, Indiana, has recorded sales data for the past 19 years. He has also recorded data on potentially relevant variables. The data are listed in the file P13_17.xlsx. a. Estimate a simple regression equation involving annual sales (the dependent variable) and the size of the population residing within 10 miles of the restaurant (the explanatory variable). Interpret R-square for this regression. b. Add another explanatory variableannual advertising expendituresto the regression equation in part a. Estimate and interpret this expanded equation. How does the R-square value for this multiple regression equation compare to that of the simple regression equation estimated in part a? Explain any difference between the two R-square values. How can you use the adjusted R-squares for a comparison of the two equations? c. Add one more explanatory variable to the multiple regression equation estimated in part b. In particular, estimate and interpret the coefficients of a multiple regression equation that includes the previous years advertising expenditure. How does the inclusion of this third explanatory variable affect the R-square, compared to the corresponding values for the equation of part b? Explain any changes in this value. What does the adjusted R-square for the new equation tell you?
- The file P13_28.xlsx contains monthly retail sales of U.S. liquor stores. a. Is seasonality present in these data? If so, characterize the seasonality pattern. b. Use Winters method to forecast this series with smoothing constants = = 0.1 and = 0.3. Does the forecast series seem to track the seasonal pattern well? What are your forecasts for the next 12 months?The file P13_02.xlsx contains five years of monthly data on sales (number of units sold) for a particular company. The company suspects that except for random noise, its sales are growing by a constant percentage each month and will continue to do so for at least the near future. a. Explain briefly whether the plot of the series visually supports the companys suspicion. b. By what percentage are sales increasing each month? c. What is the MAPE for the forecast model in part b? In words, what does it measure? Considering its magnitude, does the model seem to be doing a good job? d. In words, how does the model make forecasts for future months? Specifically, given the forecast value for the last month in the data set, what simple arithmetic could you use to obtain forecasts for the next few months?The file P13_29.xlsx contains monthly time series data for total U.S. retail sales of building materials (which includes retail sales of building materials, hardware and garden supply stores, and mobile home dealers). a. Is seasonality present in these data? If so, characterize the seasonality pattern. b. Use Winters method to forecast this series with smoothing constants = = 0.1 and = 0.3. Does the forecast series seem to track the seasonal pattern well? What are your forecasts for the next 12 months?
- The file P13_27.xlsx contains yearly data on the proportion of Americans under the age of 18 living below the poverty level. a. Create a time series chart of the data. Based on what you see, which of the exponential smoothing models do you think will provide the best forecasting model? Why? b. Use simple exponential smoothing to forecast these data, using a smoothing constant of 0.1. c. Repeat part b, but search for the smoothing constant that makes RMSE as small as possible. Create a chart of the series with the forecasts superimposed from this optimal smoothing constant. Does it make much of an improvement over the model in part b? d. Write a short report to summarize your results. Considering the chart in part c, would you say the forecasts are good?A small computer chip manufacturer wants to forecast monthly ozperating costs as a function of the number of units produced during a month. The company has collected the 16 months of data in the file P13_34.xlsx. a. Determine an equation that can be used to predict monthly production costs from units produced. Are there any outliers? b. How could the regression line obtained in part a be used to determine whether the company was efficient or inefficient during any particular month?The file P13_25.xlsx contains the quarterly numbers of applications for home mortgage loans at a branch office of Northern Central Bank. a. Create a time series chart of the data. Based on what you see, which of the exponential smoothing models do you think will provide the best forecasting model? Why? b. Use simple exponential smoothing to forecast these data, using a smoothing constant of 0.1. c. Repeat part b, but search for the smoothing constant that makes RMSE as small as possible. Does it make much of an improvement over the model in part b? Is it guaranteed to produce better forecasts for the future?
