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A principal is considering hiring a lawyer to represent him or her in a lawsuit. The principal gets $ 250 000 if the suit is won and $0 otherwise. If the agent works hard (100 hours), there is a 50% chance that the principal will win the suit. If the agent does not work hard (10 hours), there is a 15% chance that the principal will win the suit. Without a lawyer, the principal is sure to lose the suit. The principal can monitor the agent, and both parties are risk neutral. The agent's utility function is m-50e, where m is money in dollars and e is effort in hours. The agent's fee for this case is $100 per hour, and the outside opportunity is worth $500. Write down the game in extensive form and solve it.
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- In the final round of a TV game show, contestants have a chance to increase their current winnings of $1 million dollars to $2 million dollars. If they are wrong, their prize is decreased to $500,000. The contestant thinks his guess will be right 50% of the time. Should he play? What is the lowest probability of a correct guess that would make playing profitable?A risk-eutral plaintiff in a lawsuit must decide whether to settle a claim or go to trial. The defendants offer $70,000 to settle now. If the plaintiff does not settle, the plaintiff believes that the probability of winning at trial is 40%. If the plaintiff wins, the amount awarded to the plaintiff is X. Will the plaintiff settle if X is $87,500? What if X= $280,000? What is the critical value of X that would make the plaintiff indifferent between settling and going to trial? If the plaintiff were risk averse instead of risk neutral, would this critical value of X be higher or lower? If the amount to be awarded at trial with a win (X) were $87,500, then the plaintiff would settle If the amount to be awarded at trial with a win (X) were $280,000, then the plaintiff would not settle The critical value of X that would make the plaintiff indifferent between settling and going to trial is $. (Enter your response using rounded to two decimal places.)A local company has offered a construction job to a contractor. The value of the contract depends on the length of time it takes to complete the project. If the project is completed on time, there is a profit of $140,000. If the contractor is late finishing the project, he will lose $20,000. Weather is the sole determinant of whether the project would be late. If the weather is good, the project would be completed on time; if it is bad, the project will not be completed on schedule. Based on his past experience the contractor's subjective probability of good weather is 50 percent. The contractor, however, has an opportunity to buy a long-range forecast report at the cost of $10,000 from an independent weather- forecasting company. The weather forecasting company has a fairly good track record for these long-range forecasts. Its files indicate that 70% of the time it successfully predicted good weather, and 80 percent of the time it was able to predict bad weather. In other words,…
- Consider two local banks. Bank A has 100 loans outstanding, each for $0.9 million, that it expects will be repaid today. Each loan has a 7% probability of default, in which case the bank is not repaid anything. The chance of default is independent across all the loans. Bank B has only one loan of $90 million outstanding, which it also expects will be repaid today. It also has a 7% probability of not being repaid. Calculate the following: a. The expected overall payoff of each bank. b. The standard deviation of the overall payoff of each bank.Lucy, the manager of the medical test firm Dubrow Labs, worries about the firm being sued for botched results from blood tests. If it isn't sued, the firm expects to earn profit of $120, but if it is successfully sued, its profit will be only $20. Lucy believes that the probability of a successful suit is 20%. If fair insurance is available and Lucy is risk averse, how much insurance will she buy? Lucy will buy insurance that costs her $ when not successfully sued. (Enter your response as a whole number.)A real estate developer must decide on a plan for developing a certain piece of property. After careful consideration, the developer has two acceptable alternatives: residential proposal or commercial proposal. The main factor or state of nature that will influence the profitability of the development is whether or not a shopping center is built close by and the size of the shopping center. There is a 20% chance of no center being built, a 50% chance of a medium shopping center built, and a 30% chance of a large shopping center. If the developer selects the residential proposal and no center is built, he has a further set of options: do nothing $400,000 payoff; build a small shopping center himself $700,000 payoff; or put in a park resulting in $800,000 payoff. Should a medium shopping center be built nearby, his payoff for residential would be $1,600,000 and large shopping center results in a $1,200,000 payoff. If the developer selects the commercial proposal and no center is…
- In a final round of a MegaMillion TV show a contestant has a won $1 million and has a chance of doubling the reward. If he loses his winnings drop to $500,000. The contestant thinks his chances of winning is 50%. Should he play? What is the lowest probability of a correct guess that will make his betprofitable? Please show your work.A risk-neutral plaintiff in a lawsuit must decide whether to settle a claim or go to trial. The defendants offer $50,000 to settle now. If the plaintiff does not settle, the plaintiff believes that the probability of winning at trial is 50% if the plaintiff wins, the amount awarded to the plaintiff is X Will the plaintif settle if x is $62,500? What if X-$250,000? What is the critical value of X that would make the plaintiff indifferent between setting and going to trial? it the plaintiff were risk averse instead of risk neutral, would this critical value of X be higher or lower? If the amount to be awarded at trial with a win (X) were $62,500, then the plaintiff would settle If the amount to be awarded at trial with a win (X) were $250,000, then the plaintiff would not settle The critical value of X that would make the plaintiff indifferent between settling and going to trial is $ (Enter your response using rounded to wo decimal places)When you send out a resume, the probability of being called for an interview is 0.20. What is the expected number of resumes you send out until you get the first interview?
- Suppose that you graduate from college next year and you have two career options: 1) You will start a job in an investment bank paying a $100,000 annual salary. 2) You will start a Ph.D. in economics and, as a student, you will receive a $20,000 salary. You are bad with decisions, so you are letting a friend of yours decide for you by flipping a coin. The probabilities of options 1 and 2 are, therefore, each 50%. a) Illustrate, using indifference curves, your preferences regarding consumption choices in the two different states of the world. Assume that you are risk-averse. [Include also the 45 degrees line in your figure] b) Now show how the indifference curves would change if you were substantially more risk averse than before. Explain. c) Now show the indifference curves if you are risk neutral and if you are risk loving. d) Show your expected utility preferences from point a) mathematically.Gavin Jones’s friend is planning to invest $1 million in a rockconcert to be held 1 year from now. The friend figures that he will obtain $2.8 million revenue from his $1 million investment—unless it rains. If it rains, he will lose his entire investment. There is a 50% chance that it will rain the day of the concert. Gavin suggests that he buy rain insurance. He can buy one unit of insurance for $0.50, and this unit pays $1 if it rains and nothing if it does not. He may purchase as many units as he wishes, up to $2.8 million.(a) What is the expected rate of return on his investment if he buys u units of insurance? (The cost of insurance is in addition to his $1 million investment.)(b) What number of units will minimize the variance of his return? What is this minimum value? And what is the corresponding expected rate of them? [Hint: Before calculating a general expression for variance, think about a simple answer.]PLEASE SHOW CORRECT ANSWER TRUE OR FALSE