For the remaining questions, consider the following problem description: An oil company is considering exploring new well sites S₁, S2, ..., S10 with respective costs C1, C2, C10. And in particular they want to find the least-cost selection of 5 out of the 10 possible *** 3 sites. The binary decision variables X₁, X2,..., X10 denote the decision to explore the corresponding site.
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- A local real estate investor in Montego Bay is considering three alternative investments: a motel,a restaurant, or a theatre. Profits from the motel or restaurant will be affected by the availabilityof gasoline and the number of tourists; profits from the theatre will be relatively stable under anyconditions. The following payoff table shows the profit or loss that could result from eachinvestment: Real Estate Investor Payoff Table Payoffs are Profits States of Nature (Gasoline Availability)Decision Alternatives Shortage Stable Supply SurplusMotel $–8,000 $15,000 $20,000Restaurant $2,000 $8,000 $6,000Theater $6,000 $6,000 $5,000 A. Which option should the real estate investor choose if he uses the LaPlace criterion? B. Using a…1. Andre and Zac run a salad shop called "Healthy from A to Z". They need to make the salads a day before so they have to decide how many salads to make in advance each day before they know the actual demand. Their choice is between 45, 55 and 65 salads. The following table shows their profit or loss/ payoff table. Amount in Php. Determine the optical decision alternative for the four types of criteria. For Criterion of Realism, consider an index of optimism at α=65%.A local real estate investor in Kingston is considering three alternative investments: a motel, a restaurant, or a theater. Profits from the motel or restaurant will be affected by the availability of gasoline and the number of tourists; profits from the theater will be relatively stable under any conditions. The following payoff table shows the profit or loss that could result from each investment: Real Estate Investor Payoff Table Payoffs are Profits States of Nature (Gasoline Availability) Decision Alternatives Shortage Stable Supply Surplus Motel $–8,000 $15,000 $22,000 Restaurant $2,000 $8,000 $6,000 Theater $6,000 $6,000 $5,000 Which option should the real estate investor choose if he uses the LaPlace criterion? Using…
- 1. Consider the decision table given below. Find which Profits NI N2 N3 N4 decision will be taken, as a function of c (a real number) according to a. Wald's criterion, Laplace's criterion, and Hurwicz's criterion (take a-0.6). b. Find the range(s) of c for which all three methods uniquely lead to same alternative. SI 3. 4 6. S2 2 4 S3 6. S4 6. 6Even though independent gasoline stations have been having a difficult time, Ian Langella has been thinking about starting his own independent gasoline station. Ian's problem is to decide how large his station should be. The annual returns will depend on both the size of his station and a number of marketing factors related to the oil industry and demand for gasoline. After a careful analysis, lan developed the following table: Size of First Station Small Medium The value of the return under this decision is $ c) Using the decision making under uncertainty with the criterion of Maximin The appropriate decision will be Good Market $40,000 $90,000 $105,000 $320,000 Large Very Large For example, if lan constructs a small station and the market is good, he will realize a profit of $40,000. This exercise contains only parts b, c, and d. b) Using the decision making under uncertainty with the criterion of Maximax The appropriate decision will be The value of the return under this decision is…Calculating outcomes as equally likely would BEST describe: O a. Maximax criterion O b. Laplace criterion O c. Regret criterion Od. Maximin criterion Determining the average payoff for each alternative and choosing the one with the BEST payoff is the approach called: ea, maximax O b. minimax regret O c. laplace Od maximin 2
- 1. The Yellow Cab Pizza wants to launch a new pizza variant next month. After deliberations with their research department, marketing, finance and operations, they have broken down the possible variants into two (2) options: the Neapolitan and Chicago Deep Dish. The table below shows the possible profits (expressed in millions) for each option and the corresponding probabilities: Chicago deep dish Profit (x;) Probability (P,) Neapolitan Profit (x;) Probability (P,) 35 0.15 35 0.20 45 0.30 45 0.35 50 0.35 50 0.30 60 0.20 60 0.15The following payoff table shows profit for a decision analysis problem with two decision alternatives and three states of nature. States of Nature Decision Alternative $1 52 53 d1 d2 240 90 15 90 90 65 Suppose that the decision maker obtained the probabilities P(s₁) = 0.65, P(s2) = 0.15, and P(S3) = 0.20. Use the expected value approach to determine the optimal decision. EV(d₁) EV(d2) = = The optimal decision is --?--✓The following payoff table shows profit for a decision analysis problem with two decision alternatives and three states of nature. Decision Alternative = d₁ d₂ States of Nature 51 230 80 $2 $3 80 5 80 55 Suppose that the decision maker obtained the probabilities P(S₁) = 0.65, P(s₂) = 0.15, and P(S3) = 0.20. Use the expected value approach to determine the optimal decision. EV(d₁) EV(d₂)
- Adam has been offered to open up a Service station. However, the size of the establishment will be based on his decision. The annual return and investment required will be based on both size and market condition. To help out in the decision making, Adam has done the analysis and the expected profit/loss are shown in the table: Develop a decision table for this? What is the maximax decision? What is the equally likely decision? Develop a decision tree. Assume each outcome is equally likely, then find the highest expected monetory value (EMV).Even though independent gasoline stations have been having a difficult time. Murad has been thinking about starting her own independent gasoline station. Murad's problem is to decide how large his station would be. The annual returns will depend on both the size of his station and a number of marketing factors related to the oil industry and demand for gasoline. After a careful analysis, Murad developed the following table: Size of the first station Small Medium Large Very large Probability Good market,$ 50 000 80 000 100 000 300 000 20% Fair market,$ 20 000 30 000 30 000 25 000 30% a) what is the maximax decision? b) what is the maximin decision c) what is the equally likely decision (Laplace) d) What is the Expected Monetary Value Criterion (EMV Criterion) Poor market, $ -10 000 -20 000 -40 000 -160 000 50%Robert Ragsdale is trying to decide if he should purchase repair and replacement insurance on a new laptop computer that he is planning to purchase. The policy costs $400.00 at the time of purchase, and over the next three years will replace the laptop if it is stolen or repair it if it is broken. The following table contains the total costs of this decision. Which alternative is best, according to each of the following decision criteria? Maximin Maximax Laplace Minimax regret