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- Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?
- Specific motors produces electronic motors for power-actuated valves for the Medicalconstruction industry. Specific's production plant has operated at near capacity forover a year now. JOSEPH Bakkabulindi, the plant manager thinks that the growth insales will continue, and he wants to develop a long- range forecast to be used to planfacility requirements for the next 3 years. Sales records for the past 10 years havebeen accumulated: N.B: Show all the workings. Solve with Linear regression. Year Annual sales (000's of units) Year Annual sales (000's of units 1 500 6 1,000 2 650 7 1,100 3 900 8 1,300 4 1,000 9 1,450 5 1,000 10 1,60012-1. The Hartley-Davis motorcycle dealer in the Minneapolis- St. Paul area wants to be able to forecast accurately the de- mand for the Roadhog Super motorcycle during the next month. From sales records, the dealer has accumulated the data in the following table for the past year. Month January February March April Мay June Motorcycle Sales 7 10 8 7 12 July August September 10 11 12 October 10 November December 14 16 a Compute a three-month moving average forecast of demand for April through January (of the next year). b. Compore a five-month moving average forecast for June drough January. c. Compare the two forecasts computed in parts (a) and (b) using MAD. Which one should the dealer use for January of dhe next year?4-Forecasting using Exponential Smoothing The first five periods of demand data are shown in the following table .Let the smoothing coefficient, alpha, equal 0.2.Compute the exponentially smoothed forecasts for periods one through four .Initialize the procedure with a forecast value for period one of 37. Period Aggregate Demand Forecast demand 0 - - 1 38 37 2 42 3 40 4 36 5 42 Determine the Running Sum of Forecast Errors (RSFE), the Mean Absolute Deviation, MADt-1,and the Tracking Signal(TS) at the end of each period. Let the initial MADt-1 for period 0 be equal to 2.
- Practice Problem: Usins the data on a hospital’s revenue: (1) Use simple exponential smoothing to make predictions for the hospital’s revenues during the next four quarters with α = 0.30. (2) Use Trend-Adjusted Exponential Smoothing(i.e. Holt’s method) to make forecasts for the hospital’s revenues during the next four quarters. Assume α = 0.05, β = 0.65, initial revenue forecast = 1209285.75 and initial trend forecast = 15714. (3) Using least-squares regression with seasonal index decomposing method, forecast the hospital’s revenues during the next four quarters.Week Sales1 27502 31003 32504 28005 29006 30507 33008 31009 295010 300011 320012 3150Develop a three-week moving average. A.What is the forecast for week 5? (Make sure no decimal place and no comma. EX: 1234) B.What is the value of MSE (mean squared error) with regard to a three-week moving average? (Make sure no decimal place and no comma. EX: 1234) C.Develop the exponential smoothing with the alpha value of 0.20. What is the forecast for week 5? (Make sure no decimal place and no comma. EX: 1234) D.What is the value of MSE (mean squared error) with regard to the exponential smoothing? (Make sure no decimal place and no comma. EX: 1234) E.Which method is more accurate? (1 for Moving average, 2 for Exponential Smoothing)1. Compute three-period moving average and forecasting errors for the following time series: Period (t): 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Value (Xt): 15 27 20 14 25 11 15 20 25 22 compute mean absolute deviation (MAD) and mean square error (MSE) and interpret the obtained results. 2. What do you understand by the analysis of time series, explain in details? Give a brief introduction of forecasting.
- Forecasting is critical in modern times. Business organizations manifested more concern with anticipating the future, and as a consequence, a number of highly successful consulting firms emerged to provide forecasting help for governments and businesses. You are required: iii. Identify the different levels that forecasting of business trends takes place. iv. Give 3 examples where long-range forecasting can be used v. Do you think forecasting is always correct and accurate? Discuss this assertion in detail1. Discuss the differences between Qualitative and Quantitative forecasting models. How do Associative and Time Series techniques differ? 2. What is the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)? 3. Use the following set of data to calculate the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) for the following set of data. Actual (A:) Forecast (Ft) Forecast Error Absolute (Deviation) Month Forecast Eror January February March 45 45 42 50 34 45 April 48 40 Мay 38 45 MAD =Cinema HD an online movie streaming service that offers a wide variety of award-winning TV shows, movies, animes, and documentaries, would like to determine the mathematical trend of memberships in order to project future needs. Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Membership 17 16 16 21 20 20 23 25 24 a. What are the issues associated with qualitative forecasting, and how are these overcome? b.Provide an example of qualitative forecasting and explain the shortcomings.