problem 4 McKinney be superior?the relevance of break-even points for these cities?MayJunesame profit?be superior (have higher profits)?Problem 4The monthly demand for units manufactured by the Acme Rocket Company has been as follows:MonthUnitsUnits10080110115MonthSeptemberOctoberNovemberJulyAugustDecembera) Use the exponential smoothing method to forecast the number of units for June to January. The initialforecast for May was 105 units; a 0.2.$29,000 each.b) Calculate the absolute percentage error for each month from June through December and the MAD andMAPE of forecast error as of the end of December.Problem 5Madras Medical College is trying to improve its image providingtheir relatives. Part of the "image" program involveshealthful. A questionnaire accompaniese or she is satisfied or unsatisdays yielded the t105c) Calculate the tracking signal as of the end of December. What can you say about the performance oryour forecasting method?110125120

Formulae used: Exponential smoothing: Ft=α(At-1) + (1-α)Ft-1Where: Ft-1=forecast for the previous…

Answered: Kinney be superior? relevance of…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter13: Regression And Forecasting Models

Section13.7: Exponential Smoothing Models

Problem 26P: The file P13_26.xlsx contains the monthly number of airline tickets sold by the CareFree Travel...

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Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?
The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?
The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?
The owner of a restaurant in Bloomington, Indiana, has recorded sales data for the past 19 years. He has also recorded data on potentially relevant variables. The data are listed in the file P13_17.xlsx. a. Estimate a simple regression equation involving annual sales (the dependent variable) and the size of the population residing within 10 miles of the restaurant (the explanatory variable). Interpret R-square for this regression. b. Add another explanatory variableannual advertising expendituresto the regression equation in part a. Estimate and interpret this expanded equation. How does the R-square value for this multiple regression equation compare to that of the simple regression equation estimated in part a? Explain any difference between the two R-square values. How can you use the adjusted R-squares for a comparison of the two equations? c. Add one more explanatory variable to the multiple regression equation estimated in part b. In particular, estimate and interpret the coefficients of a multiple regression equation that includes the previous years advertising expenditure. How does the inclusion of this third explanatory variable affect the R-square, compared to the corresponding values for the equation of part b? Explain any changes in this value. What does the adjusted R-square for the new equation tell you?
The file P13_26.xlsx contains the monthly number of airline tickets sold by the CareFree Travel Agency. a. Create a time series chart of the data. Based on what you see, which of the exponential smoothing models do you think will provide the best forecasting model? Why? b. Use simple exponential smoothing to forecast these data, using a smoothing constant of 0.1. c. Repeat part b, but search for the smoothing constant that makes RMSE as small as possible. Does it make much of an improvement over the model in part b?
The file P13_29.xlsx contains monthly time series data for total U.S. retail sales of building materials (which includes retail sales of building materials, hardware and garden supply stores, and mobile home dealers). a. Is seasonality present in these data? If so, characterize the seasonality pattern. b. Use Winters method to forecast this series with smoothing constants = = 0.1 and = 0.3. Does the forecast series seem to track the seasonal pattern well? What are your forecasts for the next 12 months?
Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. Is Ben Gibson acting legally? Is he acting ethically? Why or why not?
Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. As the Marketing Manager for Southeastern Corrugated, what would you do upon receiving the request for quotation from Coastal Products?
The number of patients coming to the Healthy Start Maternity clinic has been increasing steadilyover the past eight months. You are provided with some historical data as follows: Month Clinic attendance (in thousands)1 3.42 3.93 4.54 5.05 5.86 5.97 6.58 6.7 a. Identify and give a brief explanation of the:i. Dependent variableii. Independent variable b. Use simple linear regression to forecast annual demand for months 9 and 10 by using thetabular method to:i. Derive the values for the intercept and slope. ii. Derive the linear regression equation. iii. Plot the linear regression line. iv. Develop a forecast of the clinic attendance for months 9 and 10.
My App is a small but growing start-up that sees demand for several of its apps increasing quickly. The table below shows the last six months of downloads. Use a forecast for the first month of 220,000, an initial trend forecast of 35,000, and smoothing parameters of 015 for both demand smoothing and trend smoothing Month (t) Monthly Application Downloads Forecast for Next Month Trend 220,000.00 35,000.00 200,000 2 250, 100 334,000 380,000 440,000 500,000 (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.) Complete the table above, filling in the "Forecast for next month" and "Trend" columns, using double a. exponential smoothing (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.) Month 7's forecast is b.
Below is a table containing data on product demand for the most recent five months along with the forecasts that had been made for those 5 previous months. Use the 3-period simple moving average method to forecast the number of sales to expect next month. Month Demand Forecast 1 308 341 388 343.3 3 344 364.7 4 400 346.7 341 377.3
A cosmetics manufacturer's marketing department has developed a linear trend equation th its popular Hand & Foot Cream. F = 95,000 + 15,000t Where F = Annual sales t is in years (Enter all answers as whole numbers.) a. Are annual sales increasing or decreasing? By how much? Annual sales are by bottles per year. b. Predict annual sales for year 8 using the equation. Annual sales for year 8 bottles

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