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Nasa's new Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation instrument investigates how airborne dust particles affect the climate. Since July 2020, the instrument has revealed that more than a billion metric tonnes- the weight of 10,000 aircraft carriers of mineral dust are carried through the atmosphere from deserts and dry regions to other areas on earth. One area that has been particularly badly affected is southeastern Europe, in particular Greece, Cyprus and Turkey. In a joint project, data scientists at the Cyprus Institute and Newcastle University are interested in the probability that particulate matter in the air, during and immediatley following a dust storm, will result in an environmental health warning being issued for certain at-risk groups (i.e. people suffering from chronic lung conditions such as asthma). (a) After extensive discussions with a team of scientists including meteorologists and epidemiologists prior beliefs regarding were expressed according to the probability density function shown below in Figure 1. Look at it, and then answer the following questions. (i) In plain English, briefly describe what Figure 1 tells us in terms of the project team's prior beliefs about 0 (ii) The density shown in Figure 1 is that of a Beta distribution. Choose the most appropriate prior from the list below, and clearly explain your choice: 0~ Be(20, 77) or 0~ Be(17,5) or 0~ Be(20, 20) or ~ Be(5, 17). 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Figure 1: Elicited prior density representing beliefs about 0.

Nasa's new Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation instrument investigates how airborne dust particles affect the climate. Since July 2020, the instrument has revealed that more than a billion metric tonnes- the weight of 10,000 aircraft carriers of mineral dust are carried through the atmosphere from deserts and dry regions to other areas on earth. One area that has been particularly badly affected is southeastern Europe, in particular Greece, Cyprus and Turkey. In a joint project, data scientists at the Cyprus Institute and Newcastle University are interested in the probability that particulate matter in the air, during and immediatley following a dust storm, will result in an environmental health warning being issued for certain at-risk groups (i.e. people suffering from chronic lung conditions such as asthma). (a) After extensive discussions with a team of scientists including meteorologists and epidemiologists prior beliefs regarding were expressed according to the probability density function shown below in Figure 1. Look at it, and then answer the following questions. (i) In plain English, briefly describe what Figure 1 tells us in terms of the project team's prior beliefs about 0 (ii) The density shown in Figure 1 is that of a Beta distribution. Choose the most appropriate prior from the list below, and clearly explain your choice: 0~ Be(20, 77) or 0~ Be(17,5) or 0~ Be(20, 20) or ~ Be(5, 17). 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Figure 1: Elicited prior density representing beliefs about 0.

Applications and Investigations in Earth Science (9th Edition)
Applications and Investigations in Earth Science (9th Edition)
9th Edition
ISBN:9780134746241
Author:Edward J. Tarbuck, Frederick K. Lutgens, Dennis G. Tasa
Publisher:Edward J. Tarbuck, Frederick K. Lutgens, Dennis G. Tasa
Chapter1: The Study Of Minerals
Section: Chapter Questions
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Nasa's new Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation instrument investigates how airborne dust particles affect the climate. Since July 2020, the instrument has revealed that more than a billion metric tonnes- the weight of 10,000 aircraft carriers of mineral dust are carried through the atmosphere from deserts and dry regions to other areas on earth. One area that has been particularly badly affected is southeastern Europe, in particular Greece, Cyprus and Turkey. In a joint project, data scientists at the Cyprus Institute and Newcastle University are interested in the probability that particulate matter in the air, during and immediatley following a dust storm, will result in an environmental health warning being issued for certain at-risk groups (i.e. people suffering from chronic lung conditions such as asthma). (a) After extensive discussions with a team of scientists including meteorologists and epidemiologists prior beliefs regarding were expressed according to the probability density function shown below in Figure 1. Look at it, and then answer the following questions. (i) In plain English, briefly describe what Figure 1 tells us in terms of the project team's prior beliefs about 0 (ii) The density shown in Figure 1 is that of a Beta distribution. Choose the most appropriate prior from the list below, and clearly explain your choice: 0~ Be(20,77) or 0~ Be(17,5) or 0~ Be(20, 20) or 0~Be(5,17). Density 0.0 T 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Figure 1: Elicited prior density representing beliefs about 0.
Transcribed Image Text:Nasa's new Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation instrument investigates how airborne dust particles affect the climate. Since July 2020, the instrument has revealed that more than a billion metric tonnes- the weight of 10,000 aircraft carriers of mineral dust are carried through the atmosphere from deserts and dry regions to other areas on earth. One area that has been particularly badly affected is southeastern Europe, in particular Greece, Cyprus and Turkey. In a joint project, data scientists at the Cyprus Institute and Newcastle University are interested in the probability that particulate matter in the air, during and immediatley following a dust storm, will result in an environmental health warning being issued for certain at-risk groups (i.e. people suffering from chronic lung conditions such as asthma). (a) After extensive discussions with a team of scientists including meteorologists and epidemiologists prior beliefs regarding were expressed according to the probability density function shown below in Figure 1. Look at it, and then answer the following questions. (i) In plain English, briefly describe what Figure 1 tells us in terms of the project team's prior beliefs about 0 (ii) The density shown in Figure 1 is that of a Beta distribution. Choose the most appropriate prior from the list below, and clearly explain your choice: 0~ Be(20,77) or 0~ Be(17,5) or 0~ Be(20, 20) or 0~Be(5,17). Density 0.0 T 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Figure 1: Elicited prior density representing beliefs about 0.
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