To boost holiday sales, Ginsberg jewelry store is advertising the following promotion: “If more than five inches of snow fall in the first three days of the year (January 1 through January 3), all purchases made between Thanksgiving and Christmas are free!” Based on historical sales records as well as experience with past promotions, the store manager believes that the total holiday sales between Thanksgiving and Christmas could range anywhere between $200,000 and $400,000 but is unsure of anything more specific. Ginsberg has collected data on snowfall from December 16 to January 18 for the past several winters in the file Ginsberg. Construct a simulation model to assess potential refund amounts so that Ginsberg can evaluate the option of purchasing an insurance policy to cover potential losses. What is the probability that Ginsberg will have to refund sales? What is the average refund? Why is this a poor measure to use to assess risk? In the cases when snowfall exceeds 5 inches, what is the average refund?