What th ree methods are used to determine the accuracy of any given forecasting method? How would you determine whether time-series regression or exponential smoothing isbetter in a specific application?
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A: When one forecasting technique is more accurate than another technique when applied to past data the…
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A: The Delphi method is more qualitative. The Delphi method was developed by the Rank corporation in…
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A: Forecasting is a tool to recognize problems and opportunities in the business and turning it into…
Q: Refer to Problem 4.2. Develop a forecast for years 2 through 12 using exponential smoothing with a =…
A: Given data is Alpha = 0.4 Forecast for year 1 = 6
Q: What tool should we use to know whether our forecasting was under forecasted or over forcasted? Is…
A: This question is related to forecasting, we use several tools or parameters to check Bias, accuracy…
Q: Choose the type of forecasting technique (survey, Delphi, averaging, seasonal, naive, trend,…
A: Forecasting techniques are used to predict the future on the basis of past and present data.…
Q: What is the forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .6? 2. If we decide to…
A: ANSWER IS AS FOLLOWS:
Q: Discuss the basic assumptions made when using time series forecasting techniques as opposed to…
A: Several assumptions are made during the Time Series Initial Phase.
Q: Complete the forecasting worksheets for: Naïve Average Moving Average Weighted Moving Average using…
A: Weighted Moving Average using the weights of .8, .15, and .05 ExponA use an alpha level of .75ExponB…
Q: What are the similarities and differences between ridge regression and forecasting?
A: A Small Introduction about Regression Regression analysis is used to predict a continuous dependent…
Q: Explain what benefits as a forecasting tool does exponential smoothing have over moving averages?
A: In today's environment, when events change frequently, the exponential smoothing method is superior.…
Q: Use the data below to solve for the following: 2. Naïve method 3. Unweighted 3 month moving average…
A: Note: - As it is specified to answer 2, 3, and 4, we will answer only those. Given data is
Q: b. Use the least-squares regression method to derive a forecasting equation. c. What is your…
A: Since you have posted a question with multiple sub-parts, we will solve the first three subparts for…
Q: What advantages does exponential smoothing have over movingcaverages as a forecasting tool?
A: The following are the benefits of exponential smoothing as a forecasting tool over moving averages.…
Q: Explain the basic assumptions made when using time series forecasting techniques as opposed to…
A: The Time Series Initial Phase makes a variety of assumptions.
Q: What does the word "biassed" mean when applied to a specific forecasting technique?
A: Forecasting is a common and widely used methodology in almost every area of endeavor, including…
Q: e least-squares regression method, the trend equation for forecasting is
A: Least square regression equation helps to identify the value of depending variable based on the…
Q: Clinic administrator Dana Schniederjans wants you to forecast patient numbers at the clinic for week…
A: Forecasting is a process that uses recorded data as inputs to make informed estimates that are…
Q: Calculate the forecast for Week 16 using - a 2-period moving average - a 3-period moving average…
A: Given data is
Q: Explain what are the benefits of exponential smoothing over moving average forecasting
A: The table below gives a prediction of the advantages of moving average over exponential smoothing.
Q: How do we measure accuracy of a forecasting model?
A: Step1:Forecasting models are tried and tested frameworks of historical data which helps in…
Q: What method would you choose of forecasting technique, which requires subjective inputs obtained…
A: Forecasting is technique which uses past data in order to predict future trends. It is mainly used…
Q: a) Forecasted sales for year 6 using the trend projection (linear regression) method are 630.1 sales…
A: MAD depicts the mean of absolute deviations in the forecasted values from the actual values. MSE…
Q: What should be our forecast accuracy target if there is a high degree of volatility in customer…
A: Thank you for you question. As per our guidelines, We will be answering the first question for you…
Q: Which qualitative forecasting technique was developed to ensure that the input fromevery participant…
A: Forecasting is the way toward making forecasts of things to depend on at various times information…
Q: What forecasting technique makes use of written surveys or telephone interviews?
A: Ans- Forecasting is the process of making assumptions of the future on the basis of past and present…
Q: Give three examples of unethical conduct involving forecasting and the ethical principle each…
A: Forecasting is the planning process that helps to predict the future demand using present or past…
Q: What implications do forecast errors have for the search for ultrasophisticated statistical…
A: Forecasting is the process of making predictions for the future based on the past and present data.…
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A: The quantitative forecasting techniques require the past relevant data, the absence of this makes…
Q: The manager of a large manufacturer of industrial pumps must choose between two alternative…
A: Both techniques have been used to prepare forecasts for a six month period as follows:
Q: Choose the type of forecasting technique (survey, Delphi, averaging, seasonal, naive, trend,…
A: Seasonal forecast is a type where the prediction is done only in that particular season. This is…
Q: What are the main advantages that quantitative techniques for forecasting have over qualitative…
A: Forecasting is the process of estimating potential demands as well as the resources that will be…
Q: What three methods are used to determine the accuracy of any given forecasting method? How would you…
A: Forecasting is the process of making assumptions of future events based on past and present…
Q: What forecasting technique makes use of written surveys or telephone interviews? Historical…
A: We’ll answer the first question since the exact one wasn’t specified. Please submit a new question…
Q: d. Follow part (b) above but using an alpha of 0.8 this time. Discuss the forecasting errors…
A: Absolute error is the error between the forecasted value and the actual value of the set.
Q: Explain how do exponential smoothing have benefits over shifting averages as forecasting tool
A: The merits of autoregressive moving as a prediction approach are considerable in comparison to…
Q: The following data shows sales forecast of Axis Dealer for motorbikes. Month Demand 1 650 2 700 810…
A: Given data:
Q: ontrast the reactive and proactive approaches to forecasting. Give several examples of types of…
A: Forecasting: Forecasting is a technique and a method which takes into consideration a set of…
Q: How do exponential smoothing have benefits over shifting.averages as a forecasting tool?
A: The benefits of exponential smoothing are as a prediction tool compared to moving averages.
Q: Identify and explain the areas other than mentioned where the Hard Rock Cafe could use forecasting…
A: Hard Rock Cafe, Inc. is a chain of subject eateries established in 1971 by Isaac Tigrett and Peter…
Q: . What is the mean square error for time periods 2 through 4 using the average forecasting method?…
A: I am using the 2 periods simple moving average method to find average forecasts. It is the average…
Q: State and explain the weakness of standard forecasting technique in forecasting approaches
A: To be determined: the weakness of standard forecasting technique
Q: 1. It has been said that forecasting using exponential smoothing is like driving a car by looking in…
A: As specified, I have solved the second question for you. Kindly find it's answer ahead and post the…
Q: Forecasting The manager of a popular tourist resort wants to use the manual trend projection…
A: The benefit of the forecasting technique is 1) Cost reduction2) Inventory reduction and management…
Q: Discuss what advantages as a forecasting tool does exponential smoothing have over moving averages?
A: In today's environment, when events change often, the exponential smoothing method is optimal.…
Q: It has been said that forecasting using exponential smoothing is like driving a car by looking in…
A: Exponential smoothing is a time series forecasting technique for univariate data that can be…
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- Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.The owner of a restaurant in Bloomington, Indiana, has recorded sales data for the past 19 years. He has also recorded data on potentially relevant variables. The data are listed in the file P13_17.xlsx. a. Estimate a simple regression equation involving annual sales (the dependent variable) and the size of the population residing within 10 miles of the restaurant (the explanatory variable). Interpret R-square for this regression. b. Add another explanatory variableannual advertising expendituresto the regression equation in part a. Estimate and interpret this expanded equation. How does the R-square value for this multiple regression equation compare to that of the simple regression equation estimated in part a? Explain any difference between the two R-square values. How can you use the adjusted R-squares for a comparison of the two equations? c. Add one more explanatory variable to the multiple regression equation estimated in part b. In particular, estimate and interpret the coefficients of a multiple regression equation that includes the previous years advertising expenditure. How does the inclusion of this third explanatory variable affect the R-square, compared to the corresponding values for the equation of part b? Explain any changes in this value. What does the adjusted R-square for the new equation tell you?
- The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?The file P13_26.xlsx contains the monthly number of airline tickets sold by the CareFree Travel Agency. a. Create a time series chart of the data. Based on what you see, which of the exponential smoothing models do you think will provide the best forecasting model? Why? b. Use simple exponential smoothing to forecast these data, using a smoothing constant of 0.1. c. Repeat part b, but search for the smoothing constant that makes RMSE as small as possible. Does it make much of an improvement over the model in part b?The file P13_29.xlsx contains monthly time series data for total U.S. retail sales of building materials (which includes retail sales of building materials, hardware and garden supply stores, and mobile home dealers). a. Is seasonality present in these data? If so, characterize the seasonality pattern. b. Use Winters method to forecast this series with smoothing constants = = 0.1 and = 0.3. Does the forecast series seem to track the seasonal pattern well? What are your forecasts for the next 12 months?
- The file P13_28.xlsx contains monthly retail sales of U.S. liquor stores. a. Is seasonality present in these data? If so, characterize the seasonality pattern. b. Use Winters method to forecast this series with smoothing constants = = 0.1 and = 0.3. Does the forecast series seem to track the seasonal pattern well? What are your forecasts for the next 12 months?The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?A small computer chip manufacturer wants to forecast monthly ozperating costs as a function of the number of units produced during a month. The company has collected the 16 months of data in the file P13_34.xlsx. a. Determine an equation that can be used to predict monthly production costs from units produced. Are there any outliers? b. How could the regression line obtained in part a be used to determine whether the company was efficient or inefficient during any particular month?
- Do the sales prices of houses in a given community vary systematically with their sizes (as measured in square feet)? Answer this question by estimating a simple regression equation where the sales price of the house is the dependent variable, and the size of the house is the explanatory variable. Use the sample data given in P13_06.xlsx. Interpret your estimated equation, the associated R-square value, and the associated standard error of estimate.The file P13_02.xlsx contains five years of monthly data on sales (number of units sold) for a particular company. The company suspects that except for random noise, its sales are growing by a constant percentage each month and will continue to do so for at least the near future. a. Explain briefly whether the plot of the series visually supports the companys suspicion. b. By what percentage are sales increasing each month? c. What is the MAPE for the forecast model in part b? In words, what does it measure? Considering its magnitude, does the model seem to be doing a good job? d. In words, how does the model make forecasts for future months? Specifically, given the forecast value for the last month in the data set, what simple arithmetic could you use to obtain forecasts for the next few months?The file P13_25.xlsx contains the quarterly numbers of applications for home mortgage loans at a branch office of Northern Central Bank. a. Create a time series chart of the data. Based on what you see, which of the exponential smoothing models do you think will provide the best forecasting model? Why? b. Use simple exponential smoothing to forecast these data, using a smoothing constant of 0.1. c. Repeat part b, but search for the smoothing constant that makes RMSE as small as possible. Does it make much of an improvement over the model in part b? Is it guaranteed to produce better forecasts for the future?
