A Analysis On Probabilistic Risk

In recorded history, there have been 151 earthquakes in Nevada that were a magnitude of 3.5 or higher. As previously mentioned, the mountain ranges of Nevada are typically bound on one side or the other by a fault. There are quaternary faults that range in ages from less than 150 years to around 1.8 million years in existence. The property damage in Nevada from earthquakes was .2 million dollars between 1196 and 2014 based on information from department of energy for the state. As we studied in our textbook, earthquakes can by a number of things, such as shifting faults, or volcanic

A ‘hazard’ can be defined as a geophysical process operating within the lithosphere, atmosphere, hydrosphere or biosphere which could potentially lead to the loss of human life or property. However, an earthquake only becomes hazardous and therefore needs management if it occurs within close proximity to a vulnerable population. To some extent, any human settlement around the world situated close to or on top of an area of seismic activity is vulnerable. However, not all nations suffer equal devastation.

In order to map earthquake hazard zones correctly geologists found that not only should they be mapping historic earthquake epicenters but also a detailed map of every single fault line. Not until the deadly Long Beach earthquake of 1933 did politicians and engineers feel the need to start earthquake proofing the structures around them (Mualchin 2011). With the passing of the Field Act school buildings in particular were constructed with earthquake safety in mind. But the Field Act only covered schools. It wasn't until the San Fernando earthquake of 1971 where major infrastructure and hospitals were severely damaged that more policies were put in place to earthquake proof these structures (Mualchin 2011). The schools which were structurally designed to withstand earthquakes from the Field Act faired surprisingly well during this earthquake. The new policies that followed the San Fernando earthquake required hospitals and infrastructure to be designed to withstand an earthquake, also they required rupture hazard zones to be mapped so that development here would be

Scientists are studying in Parkfield, Ca because the san andreas fault has been very active since 1857 creating very common occurrence of earthquakes. They study the long-term probability of earthquakes to tell them where it’s safe to build structures and where the least amount of damage will happen if one occurs.

A hazard can best be defined as a 'situation that poses a level of threat to life, health, property or the environment.' The overall impact of earthquakes as a natural hazard varies greatly from one place and timeframe to another. As do the types of hazards, which are categorised into primary and secondary. Primary hazards are created by the direct seismic energy of an earthquake; this could include liquefaction, slope failure and tsunamis. These primary hazards can in turn trigger secondary hazards such as floods, fires, disease and destabilisation of infrastructure. A number of factors play a part in determining the severity

The southern part that stretches from Newport, Oregon to the northern part of California has a 37 percent chance of producing a major earthquake over the next 50 years. On the other hand the northern segment of the Subduction Zone that ranges from Seaside, Oregon to Vancouver Island, British Columbia has only a 10 to 15 percent chance (University 2010). The figure to the right shows the effects of a subduction zone earthquake and the catastrophic result that can come from liquefaction. This process has the potential danger of sinking the surrounding area and sucking buildings and roads into the

Earthquake Hazards occur when there are adverse effects on human activities. This can include surface faulting, ground shaking and liquefaction. In this essay I will be discussing the factors that affect earthquakes, whether human such as population density, urbanisation and earthquake mitigation or physical such as liquefaction, magnitude, landslides and proximity to the focus.

Earthquakes pose a significant risk in many regions of the Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), more particularly along the tectonically active East African Rift System (EARS). Further away from this rift system, the remainder of SSA is largely considered a stable intra-plate region characterized by a relatively low rate of seismicity. Nonetheless, several large earthquakes have been reported in historical times. While most of earthquakes in Sub-Saharan Africa occur along the EARS (inter-plate seismicity), it must be noted that a damaging earthquake can occur anywhere, especially as cities grow and many buildings are constructed without taking potential ground shaking into account. Even moderate-sized events can prove disastrous should it occur near

Construction projects can be extremely complex and fraught with uncertainty. Risk and uncertainty can potentially have damaging consequences for the construction projects. Therefore nowadays, the risk analysis and management continue to be a major feature of the project management of construction projects in an attempt to deal effectively with uncertainty and unexpected events and to achieve project success. Risk is inherent on construction projects and disputes frequently arise. One in four construction projects results in a dispute that leads to arbitration or litigation. With large scale, complex projects the likelihood of serious, time-consuming and expensive claims increases.

In order for a home building project to survive its purpose, risk analysis is essential so that occurrences that may affect the projects in the end can be identified, analyzed, assessed, managed and monitored. Because of the risky processes that are involved in the projects of home building construction, risk analysis and mitigation is the most useful tool in achieving good project and planning in home buildings as well as other constructions. If good risks management procedures are well conducted, the team’s level of confidence will be boosted, and this will enable or project to run and smoothly achieve its goals while facing and tackling each risk. Risk management will also come in handy as time will be saved as well as the

I have diligently worked on all these projects to attain something new in Structural & Earthquake Engineering. Currently, all that is on my mind is Structural Engineering, and finding a new strategy to increase Structures’ capacity and their stability under different conditions. To improve their seismic performance, to decrease their damages when they are subjected to natural disasters, to decrease the cost of their damages, and their construction, to reach the most effective approach to construct, maintain and rehabilitate different structures, I have so much on my mind, so much to experience, and numerous approaches to try; A complete list of my research interests is enumerated on my

Risk allocation is performed as part of the development of the project structure, which takes into account the distribution of responsibilities and risks during the planning, construction, financing and operating phases (Corner, 2006). The aim is to identify an efficient and effective structure that optimises the costs of the project and ensures that the risk occurrences do not damage the project (Delmon, 2009). According to Grimsey and Lewis (2007) risk allocation has two elements: optimal risk management and value for money. The first implies that the

Bunni, N (1986). Publisher; Spoon Press, Place of Publication; London. Risk and insurance in construction. 2nd ed, p215.

60) from the last great earthquake of 2001 in Figure 3(a,b,c) for Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal models, respectively. These are the cumulative conditional probabilities that an earthquake will have occurred at a time = t +  after the last earthquake if it has not occurred at a time t. It is seen from these curves that the time difference between curves for different values of t at a particular probability is smallest for the Wiebull, largest for the Lognormal and intermediate for the Gamma model.

In the U.S. alone, the average annual cost to repair damage caused by earthquakes is $4.4 billion USD. The worldwide figure is much larger than this but unquantifiable due to poorer countries unable to accurately determine the amount of damage that occurred. Year after year the cost of damages barely fluctuates from these ridiculously high figures and money must be pumped into repairing the damage done. Although a lot is being learnt about earthquakes and the fact that humans are now normally able to be alerted in time to evacuate the area the earthquake will affect, there have been no breakthroughs into reducing the amount of damage earthquakes cause to buildings and infrastructures.