3.1 Deterministic models There are two types of model that we are going to look at, firstly the deterministic model and then the stochastic model. [23]A deterministic model is used in a situation where the result can be established straightforwardly from a series of conditions. It has no stochastic elements and both the input and the outputs are determined conclusively. On the other hand a stochastic model is one where the cause and effect relationship is stochastically or randomly determined. Therefore the system having stochastic element is generally not solved analytically and hence there are several cases for which it is difficult to build an intuitive perspective. When simulating a stochastic model a random number is usually generated …show more content…
Multiple runs are used to estimate probability distributions. Conditional simulations combine stochastic modelling and geo-statistics to improve characterization of geospatial phenomena. The behaviour of these can be described by different types of processes such as Poisson and renewal, discrete-time and continuous time Markov processes, Brownian processes and diffusion. 3.1.3 Deterministic VS Stochastic models With Deterministic models the outcome is always assumed to be certain if the input is fixed then regardless of the number of times one may re-calculate its always going to generate the same result. This is similar to a simple coin toss and a roll of a die. On the other hand the stochastic model is arguable more informative than the deterministic model since it accounts for the uncertainty due to varying behavioural characteristics. Generally speaking, a deterministic model is one whose parameters are known or assumed. They describe behaviour on the basis of some physical laws and are usually developed by statistical techniques such as linear regression, or non-linear curve fitting procedures which essentially model the average system behaviours of and equilibrium or steady state …show more content…
This is illustrated in figure 3 below. The chain ladder method explicitly relies on the assumption that the expected cumulative losses settled up to and including the development year divided by the expected cumulative claims losses settled up to and including the previous development year hold for all claim occurrence years. 3.1.4. A Loss development data Let us consider a range of risks and assume that each claim of the portfolio is settled either in the accident year or in the following n development years. The data can be modelled by cumulative losses and incremental losses. 3.1.4. B Incremental losses Let CI,J where i, j Ɛ{1.2...n} (a) represent incremental losses of accident year i which is settled with a delay of j years and therefore in development year j. Let us also assume that incremental losses C I, j are observable for calendar years i + J ≤ n and are non-observable for calendar years i + J ≥ n + 1. The runoff triangle below shows the incremental losses for accident years 2000 developing over 10 years. In this case the incremental loss for 2000 development year 5 (C2000,5) is given by 89837.06 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2000 24698 58384 112485 61605 89837 36174 22525 48206 19747
Models provide the physical testing and proof of a hypothesis by exploring the extent to which the two factors relate within the given hypothesis. It puts a theory into action, to see if the theory is corrected causes and effects.
Topic: Compare and contrast the concepts of determinism, compatibilism, and libertarianism, as outlined in Chapter 4. What are the strengths and weaknesses of each of these positions? Which one do you believe is the most likely to be correct? Why?
Models provide the physical testing and proof of a hypothesis by exploring the extent to which the two factors relate within the given hypothesis. It puts a theory into action, to see if the theory is correct.
Determinism is the idea that everything we do as humans is determined by events prior to us being born and events that have happened in the past. Decisions that you may think are based on your desires, are actually based of things beyond your control. But the big question is, if determinism is
There are 3 basic views that can be taken on the view of determinism, (1) deny its reality, either because of the existence of free will or on independent grounds; (2) accept its reality but argue for its compatibility with free will; or (3) accept its reality and deny its compatibility with free will.In this paper I am going to be defending the view compatibilism, specifically W. T. Stace’s view of compatibilism.
1. According to the case, it shows that management of M determined that a loss would be “probable” and the estimate range would be $15 million to $20 million. However, they determined $17 million would be the “most likely” amount of loss.
It all depends on people’s choices and the fact that they have free will to choose what to do with their life. In the novel, there is a word, Zah-mah-ki-bo, which means fate or inevitable destiny. This word exclaims that no matter what somebody does, it is always destiny controlling their actions, and not actually them doing it. This word is almost exactly what determinism means. People can’t help their actions because their whole life is already planned out by some supernatural
Determinism (as defined by Webster) is “A doctrine that acts of the will, natural events, or social changes are determined by preceding events or natural causes”. Likely, the most radical definition of determinism would state that all events in the world are the result of a previous event, or a combination of previous events. Within the realm of the all encompassing radical determinism there are philosophies that are somewhat better thought out or backed by science. One example of this is Genetic Determinism. We know that people are in some way determined by their genes both physically and behaviorally, as the human DNA is applied. Two categories of genetic determinism are Genetic Fixity and Innate Capacity.
Determinism supporters claim that all consequences are inevitable since conditions are met and nothing else would occur by any chances. And determinism could influence and controlling everything in the universe with causal laws. According to determinism, we could make predictions about the occurrences of certain events or actions of human beings. There three types of determinism that I will discuss in the following, the Hard determinism, Soft determinism and Libertarianism.
To establish determinism, we can admit by denoting that some events in our lives happen because of prior reasons without yet losing our sense of freedom. It is actually evident that the events and actions that an individual undertakes action have different effects upon him even though they may be past or present events. Though we might not be sure whether our past event result to our present status in life, it is pertinent to note that freedom in decision making is an open forum for each individual and impacts on later activities. We can admit that some events, for example, a next domino fall, are bound to happen because of a prior event. It is possible that if we have no power to act other than us, in fact, to act, then we have no free will. This argument for hard determinism is persuasive. It is certainly valid, and none of the premises appears to be clearly false. Although we have discovered a plausible argument in defense of hard determinism, most people find this argument to be impossible to accept. In our lives, we hold each other in account of our deeds that we had made wrong choices.
One of the strengths of the determinist viewpoint is that it is hard to argue against. There are definite patterns and connections throughout the physical universe and the biological realm. There is no denying that fact. Just look at modern chemistry or how everything is made up of waves. Also, you can’t prove that you ever had more than one choice since there can only ever be one choice. In other words, once the moment is gone it is impossible to say that things could have been different since there is no going back. It is also hard to deny that some of our actions are a result of certain causes. You can always argue that something in your past affected your choices in the present.
Before one can properly evaluate the entire debate that enshrouds the Free Will/Determinism, each term must have a meaning, but before we explore the meaning of each term, we must give a general definition. Determinism is, "Everything that happens is caused to happen. (Clifford Williams. "Free Will and Determinism: A Dialogue" pg 3). This is the position that Daniel, a character in Williams’ dialogue, chooses to believe and defend. David Hume goes a little deeper and explains in his essay, "An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding of Liberty and Necessity," that determinism is this: "It is universally allowed, that matter, in all its operations, is actuated by a necessary force, and
Casual determinism put simply, is the theory that all things happen for a particular reason and everything is predetermined. It is the idea all the events in one’s life can be explained, and each event has a particular reason for being. If everything is predetermined, then this therefore suggests that the future is fixed which further suggests that we can possibly predict the behavior of things. The theory of determinism ultimately suggests that we don’t the capacity to have free will because all future events are destined to occur, and furthermore we do not posses the knowledge to figure out whether it can be proved true or false (Hoefer). There has been three positions that have developed concerning the theory of causal determinism: hard determinist, compatibilist or soft determinist, and compatibilist.
Deterministic analysis, much alike quantitative analysis, draws its methodologies from scientific and empirical theories that are based on physical relationships and are often conveyed with respect to time.
The actual production would begin in the third quarter of this year, therefore only half year’s depreciation should be counted on Equipment and IT communication in 2004 (According to Appendix A). The following years (2005-2008) incremental cash flows are computed by the same method. However as the IT equipment and furnishings would be depreciated on a straight line basis over 3 years, thus in year four (2007), there would be only half a year’s deprecation left and after that it will be used up. The last year’s net cash flow in 2009 should be included the extra terminal Value on that year, which includes 24 years’ residual value on building and one year and a half residual value on equipment totaled $2,990,412 with two assumptions of by using residual book values for the building and operating equipment and there will be no further NWS advantage after year 2009. Finally, by obtaining 6 years’ incremental cash-flows and discounting them back to time zero (with the estimate rate of return by 15%) lessing initial cost to get an appealing NPV of $1190528 (Luehrman, p. 3).