Case summary/Introduction: TSC is a small business dedicated to sell Photostat copy of original to university students. It also offers a range of service like passport photos, self-service copy machines, packaging and shipping. A university instructor shares his original documents before the semester starts. A manager at TSC is
Characters in the case:TSC Company.
Adequate Information: A university instructor shares his original documents before the semester starts. A manager at TSC is forecasting demand of documents. He usually estimated two-third of student’s enrollment.
Interpretation:Comparison of methodology with rule of thumb.
Explanation of Solution
Rule of thumb means that a course pack production batch size should be two-thirds the size of the reported enrollment.
Comparison can be done by using Mean Square Error.
There are different courses for students in which a number of students are enrolled. However, numbers produced are the Photostat copies of original documents which are required by university students. In case, a student requires a copy of document, number 1 symbol is used for calculation and 0 is used for no requirement.
Numbers produced | No. enrolled | Optional? (1=Yes, 0=No) | Forecast (Traditional) | Error | Error^2 | Forecast (regression) | Error | Error^2 |
101 | 220 | 1 | 146.67 | -45.67 | 2085.44 | 89.62 | -11.39 | 129.62 |
95 | 210 | 1 | 140.00 | -45.00 | 2025.00 | 82.63 | -12.38 | 153.14 |
176 | 200 | 0 | 133.33 | 42.67 | 1820.44 | 160.13 | -15.87 | 251.95 |
81 | 100 | 0 | 66.67 | 14.33 | 205.44 | 90.23 | 9.23 | 85.14 |
36 | 38 | 0 | 25.33 | 10.67 | 113.78 | 46.89 | 10.89 | 118.57 |
38 | 40 | 0 | 26.67 | 11.33 | 128.44 | 48.29 | 10.29 | 105.82 |
195 | 450 | 1 | 300.00 | -105.00 | 11025.00 | 250.39 | 55.38 | 3067.50 |
159 | 400 | 1 | 266.67 | -107.67 | 11592.11 | 215.44 | 56.43 | 3184.91 |
96 | 120 | 0 | 80.00 | 16.00 | 256.00 | 104.21 | 8.21 | 67.35 |
40 | 42 | 0 | 28.00 | 12.00 | 144.00 | 49.69 | 9.69 | 93.80 |
244 | 310 | 0 | 206.67 | 37.33 | 1393.78 | 237.02 | -6.98 | 48.76 |
238 | 280 | 0 | 186.67 | 51.33 | 2635.11 | 216.05 | -21.95 | 481.93 |
46 | 50 | 0 | 33.33 | 12.67 | 160.44 | 55.28 | 9.28 | 86.06 |
50 | 50 | 0 | 33.33 | 16.67 | 277.78 | 55.28 | 5.28 | 27.85 |
88 | 100 | 0 | 66.67 | 21.33 | 455.11 | 90.23 | 2.23 | 4.96 |
190 | 350 | 1 | 233.33 | -43.33 | 1877.78 | 180.49 | -9.52 | 90.54 |
25 | 25 | 0 | 16.67 | 8.33 | 69.44 | 37.80 | 12.80 | 163.89 |
300 | 360 | 0 | 240.00 | 60.00 | 3600.00 | 271.97 | -28.03 | 785.85 |
251 | 300 | 0 | 200.00 | 51.00 | 2601.00 | 230.03 | -20.97 | 439.87 |
231 | 280 | 0 | 186.67 | 44.33 | 1965.44 | 216.05 | -14.95 | 223.59 |
101 | 250 | 1 | 166.67 | -65.67 | 4312.11 | 110.59 | 9.58 | 91.87 |
91 | 250 | 1 | 166.67 | -75.67 | 5725.44 | 110.59 | 19.59 | 383.57 |
37 | 40 | 0 | 26.67 | 10.33 | 106.78 | 48.29 | 11.29 | 127.40 |
201 | 250 | 0 | 166.67 | 34.33 | 1178.78 | 195.08 | -5.92 | 35.08 |
180 | 220 | 0 | 146.67 | 33.33 | 1111.11 | 174.11 | -5.89 | 34.73 |
33 | 35 | 0 | 23.33 | 9.67 | 93.44 | 44.79 | 11.79 | 139.05 |
34 | 35 | 0 | 23.33 | 10.67 | 113.78 | 44.79 | 10.79 | 116.47 |
77 | 150 | 1 | 100.00 | -23.00 | 529.00 | 40.69 | -36.32 | 1318.78 |
243 | 300 | 0 | 200.00 | 43.00 | 1849.00 | 230.03 | -12.97 | 168.30 |
62 | 120 | 1 | 80.00 | -18.00 | 324.00 | 19.72 | -42.29 | 1788.02 |
49 | 120 | 1 | 80.00 | -31.00 | 961.00 | 19.72 | -29.29 | 857.61 |
48 | 50 | 0 | 33.33 | 14.67 | 215.11 | 55.28 | 7.28 | 52.95 |
20 | 20 | 0 | 13.33 | 6.67 | 44.44 | 34.31 | 14.31 | 204.69 |
MSE (Average) | 1848.35 | 452.41 |
The value of MSE clearly shows that the regression forecast is better than the traditional forecast as traditionally, more than 33% of the copies were wasted and at present, error is less, which implies less wastage of copies.
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Chapter 4 Solutions
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