Mary is considering the possibility of opening a small dress shop on Avenue, a few blocks from the university. She has located a good mall that attracts students. Her options are to open a small shop, a medium-sized shop, or no shop at all. The market for a dress shop can be good, average, or bad. The probabilities for these three possibilities are 0.2 for a good market, 0.3 for an average market, and 0.5 for a bad market. The net profit or loss for the medium-sized and small shops for the various market conditions are given in the following table. Building no shop at all yields no loss and no gain. alternative good market average market bad market small shop 45,000 70,000 -35,000 medium sized shop 40,000 55,000 -12,000 no shop a. Calculate the EMV criterion b. Prepare the EVPI. c. Develop the opportunity loss table for this situation. What decisions would be made using the minimum EOL criterion?

Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 46P
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Mary is considering the possibility of
opening a small dress shop on Avenue, a
few blocks from the university. She has
located a good mall that attracts students.
Her options are to open a small shop, a
medium-sized shop, or no shop at all. The
market for a dress shop can be good,
average, or bad. The probabilities for these
three possibilities are 0.2 for a good market,
0.3 for an average market, and 0.5 for a bad
market. The net profit or loss for the
medium-sized and small shops for the
various market conditions are given in the
following table. Building no shop at all
yields no loss and no gain.
alternative
good market average market bad market
small shop
45,000
70,000
-35,000
medium sized shop 40,000
55,000
-12,000
no shop
a. Calculate the EMV criterion
b. Prepare the EVPI.
c. Develop the opportunity loss table for
this situation. What decisions would be
made using the minimum EOL criterion?
Transcribed Image Text:Mary is considering the possibility of opening a small dress shop on Avenue, a few blocks from the university. She has located a good mall that attracts students. Her options are to open a small shop, a medium-sized shop, or no shop at all. The market for a dress shop can be good, average, or bad. The probabilities for these three possibilities are 0.2 for a good market, 0.3 for an average market, and 0.5 for a bad market. The net profit or loss for the medium-sized and small shops for the various market conditions are given in the following table. Building no shop at all yields no loss and no gain. alternative good market average market bad market small shop 45,000 70,000 -35,000 medium sized shop 40,000 55,000 -12,000 no shop a. Calculate the EMV criterion b. Prepare the EVPI. c. Develop the opportunity loss table for this situation. What decisions would be made using the minimum EOL criterion?
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