mpute the mean absolute deviation (MAD) via Excel and/or POM-QM. b.In the Bayside Fountain Hotel problem, compute an adjusted exponentially smoothed forecast with α = .20 and β = .20. According to the result from Excel and/or POM-QM, the forecast for the year 10 would be c.In the Bayside Fountain Hotel problem, for the adjusted
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a. In the Bayside Fountain Hotel problem, for the exponentially smoothed
b.In the Bayside Fountain Hotel problem, compute an adjusted exponentially smoothed forecast with α = .20
and β = .20. According to the result from Excel and/or POM-QM, the forecast for the year 10 would be
c.In the Bayside Fountain Hotel problem, for the adjusted
exponentially smoothed forecast with α = .20 and β = .20, compute the mean absolute deviation (MAD) via Excel and/or POM-QM.
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- Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. Ethical decisions that affect a buyers ethical perspective usually involve the organizational environment, cultural environment, personal environment, and industry environment. Analyze this scenario using these four variables.Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What should Sharon do in this situation?Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What does the Institute of Supply Management code of ethics say about financial conflicts of interest?
- Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. As the Marketing Manager for Southeastern Corrugated, what would you do upon receiving the request for quotation from Coastal Products?Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. Is Ben Gibson acting legally? Is he acting ethically? Why or why not?Small Wonder, an amusement park, experiences seasonalattendance. It has collected two years of quarterly attendancedata and made a forecast of annual attendance for the comingyear. Compute the seasonal indexes for the four quarters andgenerate quarterly forecasts for the coming year, assuming annualattendance for the coming year to be 1525.
- Local city government statistics show the rate of new driver’s license applications to be as follows: Month week Applications Weekly Forecast May 1 338 2 299 3 315 4 312 June 1 307 2 310 3 305 4 Using weights 1/2, 1/3, and 1/6 (with maximum weight given to most recent past), make a weighted moving average forecasts through week 4 of June.Prepare a graph of the monthly forecasts and average forecast demand for Chicago Paint Corp., a manufacturer of specialjzed paint for artists.Dave's Bar-B-Q operated a moble kitchen that serviced construction sitos, office buildings, and public parks. Beginning in June, snow cones were added to the menu. The weekly sales figures for June of the previous year are given in the following chart Forecast (alpha=0.3) 5.0 Week Sales 4. 4.7 3 4 Use exponential smoothing, a smoothing coefficient of 0.3, to forecast demand for the third week of June. O A. 4.7 O B. 6.4 OC. 5.1 OD. 4.0
- (a) Suppose the data in the table below represents total revenues (in $ millions) for one real estate agency in the GTA. Fill in the 3-year Moving Averages, Weighted Moving Averages (with weights 5,3,2 starting from the most recent time period), and the Exponential Smoothing Forecast values in the table below: Round your answers in part (a) to 2 decimal places. Year Revenue 3-Year Moving Averages Weighted Moving Averages Exponential Smoothing α=0.35α=0.35 2016 4.7 2017 4.9 2018 5.4 2019 5.9 2020 6.7 2021 7.9 2022 Forecast Round your answers in part (b) to 2 decimal places, and round the MAD/MAE to 3 decimal places. (b) Calculate the MAD/MAE for 3-year Moving Averages for 2019-2021 (use results from the previous problem). Year Revenue 3-Year Moving Averages Absolute Error 2016 4.7 2017 4.9 2018 5.4 2019 5.9 2020 6.7 2021 7.9 MAD/MAE = Round your answers in part (c) to 2…↑ As you can see in the following table, demand for heart transplant surgery at Washington General Hospital has increased steadily in the past few years 1 Year 2 3 4 5 Heart Transplants 46.0 52.0 52.0 57.0 60.0 The director of medical services predicted 6 years ago that demand in year 1 would be 42.0 surgeries a) Using exponential smoothing with a of 0.60 and the given forecast for year 1, the forecasts for years 2 through 6 are (round your responses to one decimal place) 2 3 5 6 Year Forecast 1 42.0 4Sarah has been custom manufacturing sweaters now for 7 years. Her annual sales are shown below. Year Sales 1 178 2 215 3 233 4 301 5 337 6 330 7 361 What are her forecasted sales for year 8 using a 5 year weighted average where w1=.4, w2=.3, w3=.15, w4=.1, w5=.05? What are her forecasted sales for year 8 using exponential smoothing? Assume year 7 forecast was 323. Select your own alpha. Which forecast method is the best for Sarah to use based on MAD? Why?